Does the Oleshky ceasefire signal progress to come in Ukraine?
Nearly 800 residents have been evacuated from the Russia-occupied city of Oleshky in southern Ukraine, with US first lady Melania Trump credited with helping to mediate the ceasefire.
The evacuation was coordinated by Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets and his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova. Most evacuees chose to be sent to Ukrainian-controlled territory, though some opted for transfer to Russia. Currently, more than 1,000 people remain in Oleshky, according to Kherson's regional administration, who were supplied with food, water and medicine.
Humanitarian success
Melania Trump hailed the mission as a success, taking to social media to thank Kyiv and Moscow for their "leadership and cooperation." She said the Oleshky ceasefire could go on to inspire a "lasting peace between the two peoples." Dmytro Lubinets similarly wrote on Telegram that it is "important to maintain this cooperation mechanism," adding that "we are currently exploring options with Yana Lantratova to continue similar humanitarian efforts."
It was clear to the Ukrainian government and international mediators that Russia could exploit the pause in this way. But it was the right thing to do to allow people to leave the country.
Military concerns
One day after the ceasefire ended, Ukraine's general staff stated that Russia had "used the humanitarian pause to fortify its positions." It also said Russia had carried out troop rotations, expanded its anti-drone defenses, and brought in ammunition. British broadcaster Sky News aired drone footage showing the Russian army transporting heavy equipment, weapons, personnel and food to Oleshky and neighboring villages.
Vyatrovych believes Russia would do the exact same thing if Kyiv were to withdraw its troops from the Donetsk region, as Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding. "Russia would use this to prepare for its next offensive, to further destroy Ukraine," he wrote.
Political timing
The Oleshky mission took place just shortly before US voters headed to the polls in the midterm elections. Dmytro Levus of the United Ukraine research center believes the timing was no coincidence. "The Russian side played right into the hands of US President Donald Trump, whose Republican Party was expected to face a crushing electoral defeat," he said.
Chalenko says the Oleshky ceasefire was in Washington's interest because it allowed Donald Trump to cast himself as a "peacemaker." Involving Melania in the mediation was a "subtle public relations move" for Trump, through which he hoped to score points ahead of the election, Levus explained. First Lady Melania Trump has long been an advocate for humanitarian causes.
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