It’s Gaza, stupid

The political landscape in the United States has been fundamentally reshaped by the outcome of the 2026 midterms. Democrats have reclaimed control of both chambers of Congress, ending a period of Republican dominance. This shift is directly linked to the public's intense reaction to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The victory was not evenly distributed across the country. In Michigan, a key battleground state, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed's win was particularly significant as it highlighted the growing disconnect between the political establishment and the electorate's stance on foreign policy.

Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that the coalition which elected President Donald Trump in 2024 had also driven the results of the 2026 midterms. He cited four primary motivations for the electorate: ending the war on Iran, addressing the rising cost of living, prioritizing 'America First,' and changing the US relationship to Israel.

The Republican Party's defeat in Michigan was facilitated by a massive financial intervention from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). The pro-Israel lobbying group spent nearly $30 million to defeat El-Sayed in the Democratic primary by backing his opponent, Haley Stevens.

This spending was not limited to the primary. AIPAC's affiliated super PAC continued to support Rogers after the primary, explicitly citing El-Sayed's campaign messaging against Israel's military actions and US taxpayer funding for it. Stevens ultimately endorsed her Republican rival just days before the election, a move that baffled her own party.

The political fallout from the war in Gaza has been described by Democratic strategist James Carville as a defining factor in the election. The article argues that the scandal of the conflict has profoundly reshaped American attitudes towards foreign policy and military aid.

The 2024 election was framed by President Trump as a rejection of 'forever wars' and 'stupid wars.' During a campaign stop in Dearborn, Michigan, he explicitly stated, 'It's gotta stop. What we want is peace.' The initiation of the US-Israeli war against Iran this year is viewed by the author as a betrayal of this will.

Democratic National Committee officials had previously acknowledged that President Joe Biden's Gaza policy was a 'net negative' in the 2024 election. Polls have consistently shown growing American disapproval of Israeli military actions, with one election night poll revealing that 62 percent of voters called the joint US-Israeli initiation of a war with Iran 'wrong'.

The author suggests that the war has become inextricably linked to broader economic concerns for voters. The perception is that the 'affordability' crisis is fueled by the cost of military interventions abroad and the influence of foreign policy special interests.

The article also highlights a moral dimension to the conflict, noting the impact on American Christians. It warns that the Israeli campaign to ethnically cleanse the West Bank, including attacks on ancient Christian communities, could become a central issue in future elections, particularly in the context of the Christmas season.

The author concludes by emphasizing that the outrage over Gaza is a genuine, unwieldy force in American politics. The demand for an end to the violence is not limited to one party but represents a broader national sentiment that leaders must address.