Pollsters missed the mark again — but this time, it wasn't Republicans they underestimated

In the weeks leading up to Election Day, President Donald Trump repeatedly criticized public opinion polls predicting a Democratic wave. "I think it's fake polls," the president argued. "A lot of the polls are rigged." House Speaker Mike Johnson echoed this sentiment, claiming "they're undercounting Republicans because Republicans are not participating in these polls anymore." However, veteran pollsters now reveal that Democratic support, not Republican turnout, was underestimated in the midterms.

Democratic undercount

"Polls probably, on average, undercounted Democrats significantly," said Chris Anderson, the Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll. Anderson pointed to the massive blue wave that allowed Democrats to decisively recapture House and Senate majorities. "This is sort of a seismic election and you can't model for a seismic election. We definitely didn't undercount Republicans, that's for sure."

Pollster assessments

Daron Shaw, a GOP pollster, acknowledged that while "directionally, we knew heading into Election Day that Kansas was a dog fight" and "Texas was probably shifting blue," the magnitude of the shift was surprising. "We probably underestimated Democratic vote share by a couple of points," Shaw admitted. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted polls also undercounted Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. "We were all undercounting Democrats," he concluded.