Netanyahu bet on Trump – but both lost

The political landscape in both Israel and the United States has been dramatically reshaped by recent electoral outcomes that have left leaders grappling with the consequences of their close alliance. Netanyahu's right-wing coalition secured just 53 seats in the October 27 parliamentary election, falling short of the 61 needed to form a government. Simultaneously, Trump's Republican party lost control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the US midterm elections, with Democrats making significant inroads into traditionally Republican strongholds.

Shared Strategy, Shared Consequences

The electoral setbacks come after both leaders had cultivated a close relationship, with Netanyahu positioning himself as uniquely capable of maintaining Trump's unwavering support. In late February, they jointly ordered a military campaign against Iran, prompting immediate Iranian retaliation and raising concerns about a broader regional conflict. In the lead-up to both elections, the leaders exchanged endorsements, calling on each other's electorates to support their respective allies.

Growing Political Costs

The US has long been Israel's staunchest diplomatic and military backer, providing at least $3.8 billion annually in military aid and repeatedly using its UN Security Council veto to block resolutions critical of Israel. However, this support has become increasingly politically costly. Recent polling found that a majority of Americans believe Israel influenced Trump's decision to wage war with Iran, with many viewing the relationship as a liability rather than an asset.

During the campaign, Trump suggested the US would no longer provide $4 billion in annual funding to Israel after 2026, though details remain unclear. This move came as Trump acknowledged the midterm losses, reluctantly conceding that the Iran war contributed to the defeat due to its impact on energy prices.

Domestic Fallout

In the aftermath of his electoral defeat, Netanyahu has questioned the results, falsely accusing foreign powers of illegally boosting votes for Israel's Arab-led parties and threatening not to recognize the certification of results. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has criticized Netanyahu's actions since the vote, including calling for an investigation into Arab party leaders, rendering him politically toxic.

Former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy noted a sense of "tail wagging the dog" in how Netanyahu's relationship with Trump was perceived, suggesting Israel's role in dragging the US into another Middle East military adventure contributed to the backlash. "Most palpable was, of course, the effect of the Iran war," Levy said.

Shifting Alliances

Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas described the US-Israel relationship as having reached "a real inflection point." While speculation continues about the implications of Trump's comments regarding military aid, Pinkas noted that there was no mention of continued access to weaponry or future strategic agreements. "The money, Israel could probably live without; the weaponry, it depends upon – but there was no mention of that," he said.

The electoral outcomes signal a potential recalibration of US-Israel relations, with voters increasingly wary of the alliance's costs. As both countries navigate new political realities, the future of their strategic partnership remains uncertain, with significant implications for regional stability and security.