A new Yalta? Why the EU fears a Putin–Trump–Xi summit

European anxiety over a potential summit of the three leaders is driven by a fear of a new division of the world, but the scenario lacks concrete facts and a shared agenda.

The most plausible topics are nuclear arms control and trade, not a secret map of spheres of influence.

Europe’s anxiety

The mere possibility of a meeting has revived a familiar nightmare for Europe’s small and middle powers: that three great powers will sit down, divide the world between themselves, and leave everyone else to discover which sphere of influence they inhabit.

The comparison to Yalta in 1945 is already being made, with some suggesting that Putin gets Ukraine, Xi gets Taiwan, and Trump gets whatever he wants in return.

However, this dramatic scenario is a considerable leap from the available facts.

Likely agenda

We know that the three leaders may be in Shenzhen and that Moscow has discussed the possibility of a joint meeting, but we don't know whether the encounter will take place, much less what its agenda would be.

For Trump, the obvious starting point is nuclear arms control because Washington has long resented an arrangement in which American and Russian arsenals were subject to bilateral limits while China remained outside the negotiating framework.

China has resisted, arguing that the US and Russia still possess vastly larger nuclear stockpiles and sees little reason to accept equivalent restraints while the disparity remains so great.

Whether Trump can persuade Xi otherwise is an open question, but this is a more plausible subject for negotiations than a secret map showing who gets which country.

Trade and Ukraine

Trade would be another topic, given Washington and Beijing have little appetite for another damaging tariff confrontation.

However, the threat of further American sanctions connected to Russia, particularly measures affecting countries that trade with Moscow, complicates their relationship and Russia would have an obvious interest in how that dispute is handled.

Ukraine might also arise, as it would be strange if Putin and Trump met without discussing the conflict, and China has its own diplomatic and economic interests in its outcome.

But discussing Ukraine isn’t the same as deciding its future and still less signing away the interests of every other country at the table.

Limits of power

The idea that the three leaders could simply write a new world order between them also misunderstands the world they inhabit because even these powerful states can’t dictate terms to everyone else.

India, Brazil, and influential countries across Africa and the Middle East would have to be part of any durable international settlement.

The most interesting feature of a potential summit is how sharply their priorities differ, as Russia, China, and the United States have considerable power but no shared understanding of how the world should be governed.