Grain under fire: Russian, Ukrainian Black Sea attacks threaten food supply

The attack on the Contship Jet Monrovia, traveling from Israel to Romania, was filmed by crew members and other vessels, with a French surveillance plane also capturing images. Kyiv authorities claimed the drones were Russian, designed to make the Black Sea unsafe for civilian ships and disrupt Ukraine's grain exports.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv's forces conducted no operations in this area, calling the incident 'another part of Russia's effort to make the western Black Sea completely unfit for navigation.'

Escalating conflict

The recent surge of attacks has resulted in at least 30 sailors being killed or missing, according to Bulgarian and Romanian authorities and maritime tracking services. Moscow's alleged campaign follows Ukrainian strikes on Russian freighters and oil tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany's Bremen University, explained that 'a shadow deal was breached by Ukraine in the summer,' referring to an informal understanding not to strike each other's cargo ships. 'Putin did issue several warnings before systemic strikes on the Odesa group of ports began.'

Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously warned: 'If the attacks on tankers continue, we will consider taking retaliatory measures against ships from countries assisting Ukraine.'

Global impact

Before Russia's 2022 invasion, about a third of the world's grain exports passed through the Black Sea, with Ukraine providing 10% of global wheat exports and 15% of corn. Over the past 12 months, wheat prices have risen by a fifth, with Chicago wheat futures increasing from $5.03 to $6.03 per bushel.

Constant Russian strikes have brought operations in Ukraine's largest maritime hub, Odesa, to a halt. 'Today, after the ports of Odesa are paralysed, there's no way out. Hardly more than 50 percent of grain can be exported via land routes,' said Viktor Honcharenko, president of the Association of Farmers and Private Land Owners of Ukraine.

Up to 60 million tonnes of grain have been harvested in Ukraine this year, but only half can be shipped out. 'There will be penniless farmers, penniless medium-sized businesses, taxes will practically be not paid, the state budget won't get any money, and jobs will be lost,' Honcharenko warned.

Economic consequences

Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch noted that Ukraine's overloaded railroads cannot handle larger volumes of grain. The country could develop domestic production of flour, starches, and paper-making additives, or switch to producing legumes and oil crops that would be welcome in the EU.

However, such a shift would significantly decrease Ukrainian farmers' profits. Kushch estimated that Zelenskyy's government should have negotiated EU subsidies worth approximately one billion euros to support growing chickpeas and soy.

The European Commission's spokeswoman for Agriculture and Customs, Paula Ritter-Moschutz, stated that the EU is 'fully committed to continue supporting Ukraine's access to international markets' and supports initiatives for a moratorium on Black Sea attacks.