Why Europe shouldn’t celebrate a Democratic midterm victory

If Democrats perform well in today's U.S. midterm elections, champagne corks may pop across Europe. But those raising a glass should consider the morning after, as a Democratic takeover of Congress is unlikely to offer immediate relief to European allies.

Constrained at home, President Trump would still be free to focus on foreign policy and trade, where the U.S. executive branch faces relatively few congressional checks, potentially increasing the risk of fresh disputes and tougher demands on Europe.

European expectations

A recent EU-wide survey found 58 percent of respondents rooting for the Democrats, compared with just 18 percent for Donald Trump's Republicans. However, European experts caution against any triumphalism or crowing over a potential Democratic victory.

Ischinger advises European friends to be restrained and avoid creating any pretext for the White House to be mad at Europe "any more than it already is." Others, like Nathalie Tocci, are skeptical that reticence will make any difference, noting Trump "really needs any reasons or excuses to lash out at Europe."

Populism connections

A setback for Trump could lift the spirits of Europe's liberals and centrists, who have seized on electoral rebuffs for Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Serbia's Aleksandar Vučić as evidence that populism has peaked or at least plateaued.

However, Tocci warns that polling strength of France's Marine Le Pen and recent gains by Germany's Alternative for Germany suggest populist politics remain potent. Still, a rebuff for MAGA would give liberals and centrists a morale boost.

Trump's likely response

Ischinger predicts that if Trump finds himself constrained on the domestic front by a hostile Congress, he's "bound to gravitate to where Congress is weak — on foreign and trade policies." He warns Europeans to brace for "not more harmonious transatlantic relations but more acrimony and even more Trump demands on Europe."

Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, agrees: "Don't expect much change from the Trump administration." He predicts Congress will investigate Trump, his family, and associates, leading to a "big circus" that will push Trump to focus on foreign policy.

Volker anticipates Trump will step up his use of pocket rescission, a contested legal theory for clawing back congressionally appropriated funds. On Iran, he's unsure whether Trump will relaunch military operations or leave the crisis for Europe and Asia to solve.

American shift

Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, sees no cause for celebration, whatever the election result. She believes European leaders should reflect on how much the U.S. has changed, noting "American voters elected Trump twice, and even if they now turn on him, those elections show their focus is now inward."

Maddox contends Europeans were slow to grasp the significance of MAGA and how long the movement might endure. "I don't think America sees itself in Europe in the way it used to," she said. "For me, that message has been clear for some time."