How the US midterms factor into Donald Trump's plans for the Iran war
As US midterm elections approach, Donald Trump's administration struggles to resolve the Iran war, with potential political shifts in Washington and Israel creating uncertainty about future military action.
The US Republican Party enters the midterm elections with Trump's administration seemingly unable to win or diplomatically resolve the Iran war. A Democratic victory would push Trump to focus more on domestic issues and likely expose the financial costs of the war in Congress, though Trump could continue limited strikes without formally declaring war.
Memarian of DAWN think tank told DW that Trump would seek a way out that saves face after the election, warning that Iran is engaged in a big gamble with someone who does not behave like a conventional politician, increasing the risk of renewed attacks.
Israel's political deadlock
Israel's October 27 election ended in deadlock, with neither Netanyahu's coalition nor former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's camp securing an outright majority. Memarian said this political uncertainty could push Netanyahu to act on major decisions while he still wields power, making the transition period the most fragile and dangerous for renewed escalation.
The president has broad authority and freedom of action, especially in foreign policy and the conduct of military operations. A Republican defeat, even with increased pressure from Congress, doesn't necessarily stop new attacks.
Nuclear impasse
Iran's nuclear program remains the biggest open issue between the governments, with the US rejecting Iran's narrative that the program is for civilian use only. Memarian explained that the US wants negotiations to start with concessions at the outset, while Iran seeks sanctions lifting before talks begin.
Morovati noted the nuclear program is the crux of the standoff, as Iran sees it as a survival guarantee and bargaining chip, while Washington fears a nuclear Iran would upend its security calculations for the Middle East.
Regional dynamics
Iran has drastically cut energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, using it as leverage on the US and Israel. Memarian said these restrictions won't trigger escalation on their own, though any incident could serve as a pretext for broader attacks.
Houthi rebels in Yemen have been targeting energy exports in the Red Sea, but Memarian notes their roots are entirely domestic and organic despite ideological closeness to Tehran. Rezaeedaryakenari warns their attacks could widen the war and accelerate coalition-building against the Islamic Republic.
Economic pressures
High oil prices and economic strain are putting pressure on all sides as the war enters its ninth month. Morovati called the economy the Achilles' heel of every party to this war, noting that energy supply expectations influence the American public and Trump administration.
Memarian sees economic costs as an incentive for a deal, but notes each side believes inflicting more pain will strengthen its hand in future talks, potentially leading to a war of attrition. Neither side has yet reached the point where compromise seems unavoidable.
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