Why Is Gold Going Down? Gold Price Prediction Points to $3,445 After $4,000 Break

The metal fell more than 3% on Friday as a selloff in technology stocks spread across markets and investors kept pricing another Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Friday's drop came on the last trading day of October, ending the week and the month with gold breaking the floor it had defended since June.

The trigger was equities. Weak quarterly results from Amazon and Intel on Thursday evening deepened a rout in AI-linked stocks, and gold fell with them instead of acting as a haven. Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose to 3.1% year on year in the latest release, which kept rate hikes on the table after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Technical Breakdown

On technical charts, gold has been trading in a descending triangle since its record near $5,600 set in late January. The upper side is a falling trend line drawn through January, March and August highs, while the lower side was a horizontal floor near $3,941 that held every test in June, July and August.

Friday's close at about $3,874 sits below this floor on the daily, weekly and monthly charts simultaneously. Both daily exponential moving averages are well above the price, with the 50-day near $4,173 and the 200-day near $4,265.

Price Targets

The first technical target is $3,445, which capped gold from April to August 2025 before the breakout that took it to records. That level is 11.7% below Monday's price of $3,903. The weekly chart shows the same break, with the next reference being the 200-week exponential moving average near $3,295, or 15.6% below current price.

On the monthly chart, the October candle closed below the same $3,941 level that supported the June and July candles. The 50-month exponential moving average is near $3,232, about 17% below spot, which would be the end point of a full return to the long-term trend.

Expert Views

Bank forecasts remain significantly above current market prices. CIBC expects gold to average $4,500 an ounce in the fourth quarter, while Helaba's forecast puts gold at $4,800 for the same period. A Reuters poll published on October 27 cut the median 2026 average to $4,495 but raised the 2027 median to $4,650.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, suggested the selling could mark the end of the correction from January's highs. "Yet another way of looking at it is that both are in the process of a full bull capitulation," he wrote of gold and silver on Friday.

Gold still matters significantly to trading volumes at retail brokers, where it drove 91% of CFD activity at ACCM in the first quarter. The only defensive scenario on charts is a return above the new resistance at $3,941 and then above $4,000. Two events this week could move the price: the US midterm elections on Tuesday and the October payrolls report on Friday.