Bitcoin to $1.6 Million? Bitwise Raises 2036 Price Target Despite Brutal Market Downturn

Bitwise has raised its 10-year Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036, despite Bitcoin having a difficult year marked by falling prices, weaker sentiment, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The revised target increases Bitcoin's projected compound annual growth rate from 28.3% to 34.3%.

Market Expansion

In Bitwise's updated report, CIO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen incorporated the latest market and economic data into their model. Rather than lowering expectations after Bitcoin fell more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026, they became more bullish.

The higher price target reflects two key factors: the size of markets Bitcoin can address and its potential market share. Bitwise increased its estimate of the store-of-value market over the next decade from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, while its projection for the institutional investment market grew from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.

Growing Adoption

Several developments have strengthened Bitcoin's case for gaining market share. Wealth management platforms like Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch have moved toward Bitcoin rather than away from it, while central banks and sovereign wealth funds have also inched closer. Bitcoin's cyclical volatility has continued to decline as well.

Despite these developments, Bitwise kept its assumptions about Bitcoin's share of each market unchanged from last year. Hougan acknowledged counterarguments, noting that most store-of-value investment has gone into gold rather than Bitcoin, and ETF inflows have slowed.

However, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has increased, and its 53% peak-to-trough decline was shallower than losses in previous bear markets. The cryptocurrency's share of the store-of-value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today.