As Trump fans the flames of a world on fire, can diplomacy take back control?
President Donald Trump's decision to launch a war against Iran in February has created unexpected consequences, turning regional conflicts into global crises and pushing worldwide inflation to 4%, according to his own envoy to Turkey.
In an increasingly interconnected world, conflicts in the Middle East have become contagious and layered, creating a global pressure cooker on the brink of explosion. The absence of clear leadership from the world's leading power has led to collective paralysis, as one crisis cannot be resolved without addressing others.
Tom Barrack, Trump's envoy to Turkey, admitted the war on Iran has brought unexpected consequences, turning 'camp fires into forest fires.' He likened the Middle East to a Rubik's Cube, where a single move affects the entire picture. 'When you adjust one thing in the region what we have seen is everything then changes,' Barrack said.
We started trying to do something with our allies in Iran that spread through Hamas, Hezbollah, to six Iranian militias, the Houthis and is now going to north Africa. So where does it stop? How much does this US intervention help or hurt?
Economic Fallout
The Iran war has been a catastrophic failure with consequences spreading worldwide. The strait of Hormuz, historically open to commercial traffic, has become an Iranian bargaining chip. Less than a fortnight before the midterms, the price of Brent oil per barrel reached $117 – 50% higher than prewar levels.
Saudi Arabia's GDP is forecast by the IMF to contract 3.3%, a five percentage-point downgrade from the 1.7% growth forecast issued in July. The country's Vision 2030 plan, constructed as a hedge against oil-price volatility, has failed as every assumption of open sea lanes, functioning airports, and US security umbrella has collapsed.
On 30 September, Saudi Arabia's government raised its 2026 budget deficit projection to $65.3bn, 48% above the original forecast. The conflict has pushed worldwide inflation to 4%, demonstrating how regional conflicts now have immediate global economic consequences.
Security Consequences
The war has not led to a more stable Iran. Hardliners around the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, are more entrenched than ever. After being attacked twice mid-negotiation, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has adjusted its defense doctrine to allow for preemptive strikes not just against US bases, but across the globe.
The incoherence of US-Israeli actions in Iran has been evident. Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to order 'the IDF, Mossad, and the security services' to 'overthrow the regime in Iran,' while Americans focused on nuclear weapons. The chaos has left Trump's domestic popularity in ruins, as foreign policy requires domestic support to be effective.
Everybody could have told you this is a dumb idea. There was really only one person in the whole world who had a 40-year project to get us to fight this war. He's a prime minister of another government [Netanyahu]. And he finally found the dumbass who was willing to do it.
Ukraine Complications
Facing plunging poll numbers and incensed by Iran's refusal to submit, Trump tried to deflect responsibility for high energy prices by encouraging Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. He demanded Zelenskyy stand down, describing him as the real impediment to peace and promoting a new era of Russian-US business cooperation.
Trump first announced a fictional 60-day 'energy truce' that neither Zelensky nor Putin had agreed. The deal to release Russian diesel proved too small to impact US prices significantly. Meanwhile, conflicting accounts emerged regarding restrictions on Ukrainian access to Elon Musk's Starlink system, with some blaming Musk himself for freelancing.
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