US moves to lift sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet could undermine Western pressure on Moscow and help fund its war in Ukraine.
The Trump administration is reportedly considering lifting sanctions on some Russian shadow fleet vessels, potentially undermining Western pressure on Moscow and helping fund its war in Ukraine.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has increasingly relied on a so-called shadow fleet to bypass Western sanctions and transport its oil globally. These tankers often use deceptive practices like turning off location transponders to evade detection and now account for nearly 19% of global oil tanker capacity, according to S&P Global.
US policy shift
The Trump administration is reportedly considering lifting sanctions on some shadow fleet vessels to ease record-high global freight rates. A US official told Reuters the move would allow these tankers to transport oil not subject to sanctions.
This is the exact opposite of what the US should be doing if it wants to end the war.
Michael Carpenter warned that such a move would reward the aggressor and help Moscow gain revenues to continue attacking Ukraine. He also noted it would create strategic divisions between the US and EU, with the EU backing Ukraine while the US supports Russia's financial goals.
US clarification
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright rejected suggestions that the US was removing sanctions from shadow fleet tankers. "We are converting dark tankers to legitimate tankers," Bloomberg quoted Wright as saying. "There is no removing of sanctions."
The US government has yet to unveil a detailed plan for shadow fleet tankers, though the proposal follows a deal struck between Trump and Putin to allow sales of Russian diesel onto global markets, seen as an effort to lower domestic fuel prices before US midterm elections.
EU response options
If the US eases restrictions, responsibility shifts to European policymakers, though they have less effective options without US financial leverage. Experts suggest Europe could demand tankers carry legitimate insurance when traveling through European waters, which would prevent many shadow fleet tankers from transporting Russian oil.
Michael Carpenter noted that the vast majority of the shadow fleet traverses the Baltic Sea and exits via the Danish Strait, giving the EU a unique position to board and inspect vessels. However, Russia has threatened to seize European ships in retaliation, and without US backing, enforcement becomes riskier.
Elisabeth Braw stressed that Ukraine's European allies must remain united and work closely with partners like Japan, Australia and Canada. "What they can achieve on their own is far less than what they can achieve if the US is part of the team," she said.
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