Brazil’s victory for the planet and democracy: seven lessons from Lula’s win

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential runoff, defeating far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro and delivering a victory for environmental protection and democracy.

The win comes just weeks after Lula's administration reported a record fall in Amazon deforestation, but the new president faces a hostile congress and regional pressure to align with US interests.

The former environment minister Marina Silva said Brazil had come together against these threats: 'Long live the people who emerged from every corner of Brazil to sow hope for a future that is socially just, sovereign, democratic and sustainable.'

Environmental progress and political obstacles

The jubilation in Brazil and among global climate activists follows a dramatic turnaround in the country's environmental record. Under the previous administration, Amazon deforestation surged by 59.5%, the highest level of any four-year presidency in Brazil.

In contrast, the Lula administration has overseen a 71.2% fall in forest loss over the past year, with satellite data showing 3,335 square kilometres of destruction, the lowest level since measurements began in 1988.

This progress has raised hopes that Brazil can achieve its target of zero deforestation by 2030 and support a global transition away from fossil fuels.

However, the new government faces significant headwinds. Far-right members of Bolsonaro's party have won the governorships of seven of the nine states and a large number of municipal mayorships.

Brazil's congress is now dominated by agribusiness and mining interests that are expected to push for the expansion of extractive industries in indigenous lands, increased road-building, and the privatization of rivers.

A campaign built on digital mobilisation

Lula's victory was secured through a sophisticated and aggressive digital campaign that transformed his political strategy. After a stodgy first-round performance, federal deputy André Janones launched a 'Lula's Army' WhatsApp group.

This group used humorous memes, live streams, and algorithmic outreach to seize digital territory that had long been dominated by the right. By voting day, the army had 10 million 'soldiers,' representing about 8% of the electorate.

Volunteers devoted hours to posting stories and spreading messages across social media, speeding up the campaign's response time and emotional impact. Everyone was instructed not to share or respond to posts by the opposition camp.

The campaign also went on the offensive against US tech giants, accusing Meta of political favouritism towards Bolsonaro in its algorithms and AI tools. Meta denied bias but acknowledged technical failures.

Global implications for climate and democracy

The victory is being hailed as a model for social and environmental movements in other countries facing elections, including the US, Spain, and France.

Brazil has also reclaimed its national colours from the far-right, with millions of people flooding social networks with images of themselves in Brazil's green, yellow, and blue, making an 'L' sign with their thumb and little finger.

The former president's brother, Flávio Bolsonaro, has already fled to Florida, highlighting the deep political divisions and the family's fealty to former US President Donald Trump.

Lula, alone among the leaders of main South American nations in not aligning with Trump's so-called Shield of the Americas, will face pressure from Washington to channel critical minerals and other natural resources to the US rather than selling to China or Europe.

The Guardian notes that while the result provides breathing space for the Amazon, the joy and hope will quickly fade unless it inspires political change in other countries.