Flávio Bolsonaro’s defeat is a major blow to Trump and his orange wave

Donald Trump's regional ambitions suffered a major blow as Brazilian voters rejected his preferred candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, in Sunday's presidential election. The far-right candidate, who was expected to bring Brazil into Trump's orbit following a series of rightwing victories across Latin America, was defeated by the leftwing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro fled to Miami on Tuesday as Lula celebrated his 81st birthday in Brasília.

Regional strategy setback

The election result represents a significant reversal for Trump's 'orange wave' – a three-year surge of rightwing triumphs that has reshaped Latin American politics. Trump had seen allies win elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Ecuador and Peru, following the capture of Venezuela's government after the country's invasion in January.

Trump's muted response

Trump responded to his ally's defeat by halfheartedly querying the election, which Lula won by 4.3m votes. Despite a months-long campaign of economic and diplomatic pressure apparently designed to boost Bolsonaro, Trump told reporters: 'I think the election was really strange … It's so terrible to see. But I wasn't involved.' The US president has offered shelter to Bolsonaro, who is facing several criminal investigations in Brazil.

Many observers suspect Trump is unlikely to pick a major fight with Lula over his rightwing ally's plight. 'One of Trump's good qualities - and I mean this sincerely, even though it sounds ironic – is that he can smell a loser, and he wants to be around winners,' said Michael Paarlberg, a former Latin America adviser to Bernie Sanders.

Bolsonaro's exile

Bolsonaro fled into Argentina on Tuesday and caught a private jet to Florida, where he briefly declared himself Brazil's 'true president-elect' before apparently changing his mind. Brazilian social networks filled with memes mocking the far-right politician who, only hours earlier, had vowed to stay in Brazil to lead opposition to Lula.

Speaking at his birthday party, Lula commented: 'This is what the Bolsonaro family is like. Brazil is their second homeland. Their first homeland is licking the boots of the US.' Lula's chief foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, claimed Bolsonaro's movement was 'defeated once and for all' after securing 59.8m votes.

Future relations

Under Lula, Brazil will not join Trump's controversial Shield of the Americas 'counter-cartel coalition' – as Bolsonaro had planned to do. However, Amorim signalled Lula would pursue pragmatic ties with Washington, noting Trump's 'certain level of pragmatism' and recalling Lula's good rapport with George W Bush.

Gedan believed Trump and Lula could patch things up, perhaps striking a deal involving Brazil's massive critical mineral reserves. 'There's actually quite a bit of space for a positive relationship, if Trump does not decide to explode US-Brazil relations,' he said. 'I think you absolutely could see Trump finding a way to admire Lula's political skills.'