No Prediction Market Has Applied to Operate in Australia, Its Financial Regulator Says
No prediction market operator has asked the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) for permission to run its business in the country, according to ASIC Chairwoman Sarah Court.
Sarah Court, who chairs the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), gave the update at a Senate estimates hearing on Thursday. She said an application under Australia's financial services licensing regime would give ASIC a chance to test whether the platforms are suitable. Any such bid would face a high bar, she added.
Without a license, the platforms are more likely to face gambling rules than financial ones, Bloomberg reported. The product has become a growth line for brokers elsewhere, with trading volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket's US venue reaching $172.4 billion in the third quarter, against $98.5 billion in the second quarter, according to FM Intelligence calculations.
Listed brokers have followed that volume growth. IG Group agreed in July to buy US sports and prediction markets operator Underdog for an upfront enterprise value of about $1.1 billion, indicating the sector's increasing importance in the financial industry.
Regulatory Approaches Differ
Where brokers already offer event contracts, the rulebook they answer to depends on the country. In the US, the contracts trade on exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Plus500 clears Kalshi's contracts for its US retail clients. State gaming regulators still contest that model, with New York ordering Kalshi to stop offering sports contracts it treated as unlicensed wagering.
Europe's answer runs through securities law. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said in July that event contracts can fall under its retail binary options ban whatever they are called, and that selling them needs MiFID II authorization.
You are more likely to lose money than make money.
Australian Stance on Prediction Markets
ASIC set out its view in August, when its Moneysmart consumer site said no prediction market is licensed as a financial market in Australia. The guidance said event contracts share characteristics with binary options. That comparison carries weight locally, as ASIC banned binary options for retail clients in 2021 and extended the ban to October 2031 after a review found around 75% of retail clients lost money trading them.
Australians can still reach offshore venues, but they lose access to dispute resolution and client money safeguards, according to ASIC. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) blocked Polymarket in August 2025, finding it offered a prohibited gambling service under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001.
IG took the betting route at home instead. It applied to Britain's Gambling Commission for the type of license Spreadex holds, to offer politics, entertainment and sports markets from early 2027. That puts the US exchange model and the British betting license at opposite ends, and the hearing places Australia nearer the British one for now.
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