Russia’s alleged sabotage campaign in Europe raises fears of escalation

Russia appears to have escalated its shadow war in Europe this year.

European officials allege that Russian fighter jets have entered Polish, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace while suspected drones have been shot down over Poland, Finland and the Baltic states.

In two separate operations in October, Ukraine accused Russia of using aerial and surface drones to sink four cargo ships just outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, a European Union and NATO member.

The strikes were an apparent warning that Ukraine’s grain exports through NATO territorial waters may not be safe for long.

Destabilising the Baltic region

Russia and Belarus have also been accused of trying to destabilise the Baltic states by making their borders appear fluid.

Latvia’s ambassador to Greece, Ieva Cesniece, told Al Jazeera that masked and most likely armed individuals on the Belarus side of the border escorted and attempted to push groups of illegal migrants into Latvia.

Cesniece drew a direct link between the Russian war in Ukraine and its shadow war in Europe.

Escalation warnings and targeted attacks

Since a failed August operation to blow up cargo planes at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, which was later verified by the European Commission as a Russian operation, warnings of further escalation have multiplied.

Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka warned in September that Russia might attempt a military attack on a NATO member in "months, not years".

Days later, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova openly declared that European defence industries supplying Ukraine were legitimate targets for Moscow.

From Moscow’s perspective, a factory producing military equipment for Ukraine, a logistics hub transporting that equipment or a company providing critical technology can all become potential targets of disruption.

That followed a report from a German newspaper, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, that Russia had planted incendiary devices in the offices of defence companies Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing in Munich.

Representatives of five EU intelligence agencies told the Financial Times that Russia was seeking to "kill" European defence bosses and target their supply chains.

The cost of inaction

As European governments warned of an imminent escalation of a Russian shadow war on the continent, experts said the bloc needs to do more to deter Russia as well as defend itself.

Protecting critical infrastructure, strengthening intelligence services and preventing attacks are essential, but deterrence is about more than preventing the next incident.

It is about convincing your adversary that continuing these operations will become too costly. And I’m not sure Russia currently sees those costs as sufficiently high.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a long-serving adviser to the Ukrainian Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs and now a Russian warfare expert with the Royal United Services Institute, said the lack of retaliation to its apparent hybrid war encourages Russia.

Danylyuk believes NATO needs to place more forward troops in the Baltic states to create "deterrence by denial" and to strengthen Ukraine.

Minna Alander, a leading European researcher in security and defence with the Center for European Policy Analysis, said denying Russians travel visas, carrying out retaliatory cyberattacks, further interdicting the Russian oil fleet and sanctioning Chinese suppliers of defence goods to Russia were all realistic retaliations Europe could impose immediately.

The most direct way to punish Russia is to actually increase support to Ukraine, Danylyuk told Al Jazeera.

Ukraine's plea for continued support

Ukraine has performed better than many expected, designing and building its own weapons and developing its own strategy to halt the Russian advance.

To reverse the tide of the war and reclaim its occupied territories, it is asking for more money, and it is asking it from the people providing the vast majority of it – Europe.

Zelenskyy told the European Council on October 16 that they could double or even triple the production of drones.