Why a Democratic win in US midterms could adversely affect Europe
Polls show Democrats leading in US midterm elections by an average of eight points, potentially affecting European politics and Ukraine support.
The United States midterm elections appear stacked against the ruling Republicans, with polls suggesting the Democrats average an eight-point lead in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. While a Democratic victory would likely improve transatlantic relations, analysts and observers have identified two potentially adverse effects on Europe.
First, a Democratic Congress might produce complacency among Europeans regarding their own far-right movements. Second, it might spur US President Donald Trump to raise pressure on Ukraine to make a deal it doesn't want to make with Russia.
European Complacency Risk
A Democratic win could lead Europeans to believe that democratic systems naturally correct themselves, potentially reducing vigilance against rising far-right parties. Marine Le Pen, currently leading French presidential polls with about 34 percent support, might face less resistance if voters believe democratic institutions will prevent extremist outcomes.
This complacency has precedent. Following Trump's first six months in office, the European Council on Foreign Relations found clear majorities in Western Europe saying the US political system was broken, while Eastern European majorities (particularly right-wing voters) said it was working well.
Migration Policy Influence
Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris warned against attributing European migration policy shifts solely to US influence. While he acknowledged Europe's independent hardening against asylum and economic migration, he noted the US provided a change in tone from integration to deterrence.
Ukraine Support Implications
Should French voters elect Le Pen as a "strong medicine" to wake up to potential losses, they would face three controversial propositions: cutting French contributions to the EU budget, reducing military aid to Ukraine, and possibly leaving the euro. A cut in French assistance would remove 3.5 percent of Ukraine's foreign military aid, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker, requiring other allies to compensate.
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