EU and Canada eye now-or-never window to Trump-proof their ties

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will join Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Montreal for two days of talks on trade, security, energy, education and the Arctic.

The summit is a calculated gamble by Brussels and Ottawa to lock in a broad upgrade to their relationship while Trump is preoccupied with the midterms and before European elections could alter the political calculus.

Four EU officials and two Canadian diplomats familiar with preparations said the strategy is to push for the most expansive possible partnership, hoping Trump is too busy campaigning to respond.

Trump’s threat

Trump has already signaled his opposition, calling the EU’s offer of associate membership for Canada “laughable” and threatening “serious tariffs” if the two sides get too close.

European capitals and Canadian provinces are all waiting to see what von der Leyen and Carney agree on, with some officials speculating the meeting could yield only “nice pictures” and little substance.

A senior EU official acknowledged that a stronger alliance risks triggering retaliation from Trump, adding that the bloc and Canada were nevertheless proceeding with business as usual.

The Europeans and Canadians know “the U.S. is watching,” but they are betting the midterms will provide a temporary shield for their efforts.

Europe’s shifting politics

Canada is also looking to secure concrete gains before Europe’s political landscape shifts, with Spain, France, Poland and Italy all set to go to the polls in the next year.

Ottawa wants changes to the partnership that will outlast Trump and Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally is polling ahead in France and has criticized the EU-Canada trade pact, CETA.

When Carney came to Strasbourg to lay out his vision for a closer alliance in September, he was heckled from the gallery by the far-right Alternative for Germany MEP Siegbert Droese, who led chants of “USA!”

It is the prospect of Le Pen in office that is causing the most concern for Canadian officials, who view the summit as a rare opportunity to lock in major wins before the French election in April.

The risk of retaliation

Canada is pushing for big, bold “structural changes” in its relationship with the EU now that will outlast Trump and Le Pen, according to a Canadian diplomat.

The diplomat warned that Trump might be even more dangerous and more likely to take out his anger on the EU and Canada after the midterms, given that he will retain many of his tariff and foreign policy powers even if the Republicans lose Congress.

At the end of the day, his reaction could be anything, but we can only control what we can control.