How do the US midterms work, and why are they so important for Trump's presidency?
On November 3, United States citizens will vote in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and significantly impact President Donald Trump's ability to govern.
Midterm elections are held every four years at the exact halfway point between presidential elections. Americans will vote on who represents them in both chambers of the US Congress: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Additionally, 36 states will elect their governors, making decisions on everything from abortion law to education and electoral procedure.
Current congressional balance
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in both chambers of Congress. The House has 218 Republican deputies, 214 Democrats, and one independent who typically votes with Republicans. In the Senate, there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who usually vote with Democrats. Vice President JD Vance would break any 50-50 ties in the Senate.
It would be a surprise if the Democrats don't at least take the House [of Representatives].
Why these midterms matter
With Trump's approval ratings at a record low—more than 60% of Americans view him negatively—these midterms are widely seen as a referendum on his presidency. The results will decisively influence US politics for the next few years, as federal policy changes must be approved by Congress before implementation.
If Republicans maintain control of both chambers, Trump will find it considerably easier to govern as he chooses. Democratic victories in one or both chambers would significantly complicate his ability to advance domestic and foreign policy agendas.
Key races to watch
Democrats need just four more House seats to gain a majority, with toss-up races in Iowa, Virginia, and Montana. In the Senate, Democrats need four additional seats for control, with the Texas race drawing particular attention. Democrat James Talarico is polling level with Republican Ken Paxton in a state where no Democrat has won statewide since 1994.
Historic possibilities exist in gubernatorial races. Minnesota could see Amy Klobuchar defeat Lisa DeMuth, while Georgia's race between Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson is neck-and-neck. Bottoms has a realistic chance to become the first Black woman governor in Georgia.
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