Israel’s choice: Netanyahu remaining in power or a Palestinian-backed coalition

Hours before the final results from Israel's elections were confirmed, several things were clear. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition had lost its mandate, and the opposition held a firm majority. Yet most of Israel's Jewish opposition refused to consider governing with Palestinian-led parties, following a racist election campaign where Netanyahu portrayed Palestinian citizens as an enemy within the state.

This self-imposed ban on a broader opposition alliance, if maintained, offers Netanyahu the prospect of transforming his defeat into another term in office – or at least a prolonged mandate as caretaker prime minister and potentially another round of elections.

Opposition's Dilemma

The confected barrier to unseating Netanyahu became the focus of Israeli media and analysts. "No Clear Government" announced the newspaper Israel Hayom, while "Road to Unity Government Has Been Paved" read an article on Channel 12.

Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, attacked that framing. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count," he said in a statement calling for a government with Palestinians.

Palestinian Readiness

While Palestinian-led parties do not describe themselves as Zionist, neither do some ultra-orthodox groups who are a key part of Netanyahu's current coalition. A survey taken as polls closed showed a clear majority of opposition voters supported forming a government with the Palestinian-led Ra'am to unseat Netanyahu, according to political psychology researcher Eran Halperin.

Palestinian leaders have been clearer about their priorities. "We are ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government," Yousef Jabareen, leader of the larger Joint List, said. "The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership." The Islamist Ra'am party even put a Jewish former police chief in second position on their slate, signaling commitment to working with Jewish Israelis.

Netanyahu's Strategy

Netanyahu put racism at the heart of his campaign, a strategy critics said was designed both to bolster voter support and complicate post-election coalition negotiations for the opposition. His election slogan "The right or Palestine" framed 20% of the population as an enemy within Israel's borders.

On election night, he shrugged off the loss of around 10 seats from his 64-seat coalition assembled in 2022 – a severe rebuke from voters – to claim his vision for Israel had been vindicated. "The rightwing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public," he said. "We must form a strong national-right government."