Why Arab parties may not be the ‘kingmakers’ in this Israeli election

Exit polls from Tuesday's Israeli election show Arab-led parties winning a record combined 17 seats in the 120-member Knesset, marking a significant shift in the country's political landscape. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc currently leads with 54 seats and Eisenkot's opposition alliance has 49, a partnership between Eisenkot and Arab parties could secure the 61 seats needed for a majority and potentially oust Netanyahu.

Despite the mathematical possibility of such a partnership, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have rejected working with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values. This political veto limits Arab parties' ability to translate their electoral gains into meaningful influence, despite their growing representation in parliament.

Electoral Arithmetic

According to The Times of Israel, a partnership between Eisenkot's opposition alliance and Arab-led parties would actually secure 66 seats, exceeding the simple majority needed. Palestinian political analyst Ahmed Najar described the opposition's unwillingness to join forces as purely ideological, noting that Eisenkot has imposed loyalty tests on Arab parties despite their support being indispensable for forming a government.

The rise of Arab parties represents a historic shift in Israeli politics. Former Israeli ambassador Daniel Shek called it probably the most important phenomenon of this election, emphasizing that such a large portion of the electorate can no longer be disregarded in political calculations.

Political Feasibility

Observers remain divided on whether a partnership between Eisenkot and Arab parties is politically feasible. Omar Shaban, director of Palthink for Strategic Studies, pointed to Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas's previous willingness to join government under certain conditions, including handling internal security matters. Abbas had even appointed Jewish lawmaker Yoav Segalovitz to the number two spot on Ra'am's electoral slate, signaling openness to collaboration.

Joint List leaders Yousef Jabareen and Ahmad Tibi have indicated their party is prepared to help bring down Netanyahu's government, though it's unclear if they would formally join a governing coalition. Jabareen stated that the current government has made the lives of every Arab citizen miserable and that his movement would leverage its political strength to advance its values.

However, significant obstacles remain. Eisenkot would need to overcome resistance from radical elements in Israeli society opposed to government reliance on Arab votes, as well as persuade prospective partners like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman to abandon the long-standing Zionist consensus that Arab parties are not legitimate governing partners.

Historical Context

Such partnerships do have precedent. After the 2021 elections, Ra'am's support was crucial in forming the short-lived Bennett-Yair Lapid government. Najar noted that Arab parties have previously supported governments from outside, most notably during Yitzhak Rabin's tenure in the 1970s and 1990s. The obstacle is, therefore, neither constitutional nor practical but ideological, he concluded.

Netanyahu has strongly rejected any coalition with Arab parties, calling it a shame and a disgrace and stating it is forbidden to establish a government relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties. Meanwhile, Bennett has reversed his previous stance, now insisting on excluding Arab parties from government. In contrast, Yair Golan of the centre-left Democrats party has urged allies to abandon their refusal to cooperate with Arab parties, writing on X: We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes.

Democratic Implications

The reluctance of Jewish-led opposition parties to work with Arab parties reveals the fundamentally racist structure of the Israeli political system, Najar argued. He pointed out that while Jewish opposition leaders describe Netanyahu and the far right as an existential danger to democracy, many would apparently prefer Netanyahu to remain in power rather than share political power with Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Najar emphasized that the objection extends beyond particular Arab parties to the very idea of Palestinian representatives having genuine governing power. A state cannot credibly call itself democratic when more than one-fifth of its citizens are permitted to vote but the representatives they elect are treated as inherently illegitimate, he stated. Palestinian citizens, he noted, are accepted as voters when their participation serves the system but rejected as political actors when they seek power to shape it.

Ghanam outlined four possible outcomes: another election, an opposition minority government supported externally by Arab parties, defections from the opposition to Netanyahu's bloc, or a national unity government. Beyond the arithmetic, the most telling result of this election is the resilience of Netanyahu's camp, which has proven deeply entrenched and cohesive, she added.