Is Iran headed to war or peace after Mecca alliance meeting?

The envoys of the Mecca defense pact—Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—arrived in Tehran on Monday to meet President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials. The three nations are seeking to open negotiating channels and "prevent the return of military escalation" amid rising fears that the US and Israel are preparing to launch new attacks on Iran after the US midterm election on November 3.

The three senior representatives at the same time sent the message that these countries are acting as a bloc, according to Babak Dorbeiki, a London-based political analyst and former official at Iran's Strategic Research Center. The Mecca defense pact, officially set up this summer, is a military alliance of Islamabad, Riyadh, and Ankara. Under its terms, an outside attack on one member state is to be regarded as an attack on all of them.

Mediators and deterrence

A senior Pakistani official cited by Reuters said the talks focused on building a regional non-aggression network, in addition to US-Iran talks, Houthi rebels' attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz, and the US naval blockade. The official added that Pakistan's Munir presented Iran with a solution to the conflict that would offer something to both Washington and Iran, with the three Mecca states and Qatar acting as mediators. The source told Reuters that US President Donald Trump previously gave Munir the go-ahead to try diplomacy.

Iran hailed the "very positive atmosphere" during the Tehran talks, even though no breakthroughs were officially announced. Rezaei argued that regional security should be built by countries in West Asia themselves and without outside intervention. A day later, Rezaei reportedly met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who called for protecting Iran's interests and maintaining Tehran's conditions for ending both the war and the current state of "neither war nor peace."

Meanwhile, Iran's President Pezeshkian travelled to Moscow for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Pezeshkian and the emir also discussed the war and the Strait of Hormuz. These and other diplomatic contacts were framed by Tehran as evidence that the US is unable to diplomatically isolate the Iranian regime.

Saudi Arabia's dilemma

The united front presented by the three nations in Tehran can also be seen as a show of force for the new Mecca defense alliance. It comes as the Saudis grow increasingly wary of the attacks on Saudi infrastructure launched by the Iran-allied Houthi militants. On the same day as the Tehran meeting, Egypt's parliament agreed to give military help to Riyadh and take "all necessary measures" to help Saudi Arabia defend itself.

Saudi Arabia faces the most immediate dilemma. Further Houthi attacks damage its infrastructure and economy, but a wider war with Iran could threaten the investment and development projects at the heart of Riyadh's economic strategy. "For Saudi Arabia, both the current situation and a war with Iran carry serious costs," Dorbeiki said. "Its preferred route is, therefore, a diplomatic solution."

Saudi Arabia has long been regarded as Iran's archrival in the region. It has used its enormous wealth to counter Iran's influence, and now it can, at least in theory, also count on Pakistan's nuclear capability and Turkey's conventional military strength. Dorbeiki argued that the Mecca pact is primarily designed for deterrence rather than offensive war. The defense pact does not mean its members want to fight Iran.

Preparing for conflict

Ali Asghar Shafieian, media advisor for President Pezeshkian, rejects the perspective that the Mecca pact representatives were trying to present Tehran with an ultimatum. He told DW that the three countries may also have wanted to demonstrate their own growing coordination, while showing that Iran remains part of regional diplomacy. "You cannot conclude from this meeting alone that it was an ultimatum before an attack," Shafieian said.

He also noted that Iran, just like the US and Israel, could prepare for the possibility of further conflict while maintaining negotiations. "Just as they use the opportunity to strengthen their military and defensive capabilities, Iran does the same," he said. Shafieian said an agreement remains possible if Iran's political standing and what Tehran describes as its national dignity are respected.

Analyst Dorbeiki argues that Iran is following a familiar strategy of extending negotiations while avoiding real-world commitments. The Houthi rebels are central to Tehran's calculation. Tehran has not publicly offered the kind of guarantees over Houthi attacks that Riyadh would want. Dorbeiki believes Iran could seek to trade influence over such the attacks for concessions such as an end to US military pressure and broader steps toward ending the war.

The only apparent outcome of the Tehran meeting is to keep talking. For Iran, that might be enough of a signal that it is still a diplomatic partner rather than an enemy. Turkey is a NATO member, but Dorbeiki says direct military support for Iran against the United States is highly improbable. The fact that Ankara sent intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin rather than its foreign or defense minister also suggests a cautious approach.