Israel’s election: The battle between change and anti-Palestinian sentiment
Israel's governing and opposition blocs failed to secure a majority in Tuesday's election, with neither appearing ready to ally with Arab parties that could allow them to form a coalition.
The vote saw turnout reach 77.7 percent of eligible voters, the highest level since 1999. With nearly 80 percent of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, Netanyahu's coalition had secured 54 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority. Eisenkot's opposition bloc had 49 seats, also falling short in the 120-strong Knesset.
The Arab-dominated Ra'am and Joint List hold 17 seats, more than enough to give either bloc a majority. However, these figures are not final, with the final tally expected by Friday and official results published on November 4.
Turnout Surge
Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel reached about 80 percent, above 1999 figures. Analysts attribute this surge to the harsh treatment of the Israeli-Palestinian minority by the Likud-led government, which intensified following the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.
Netanyahu's outgoing government is the most right-wing in Israeli history, featuring far-right figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Their policies against Palestinians have essentially made them a recruiting sergeant for pro-Arab parties.
Having just two well-organised lists significantly improved their vote-collecting efficiency and ground-level mobilisation – particularly for Ra'am, the Islamist party, which ran a much more efficient campaign than usual.
Polarized Campaign
Both blocs ran campaigns described as profoundly racist. Likud claimed the opposition planned to form a government reliant on Arab parties while petitioning to bar the Joint List from running. Lieberman ruled out coalitions with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties, while Bennett said there was 'no mandate' to form a government with Arab parties after October 7.
Former government adviser Daniel Levy criticized the opposition for offering 'no substantive alternative or hope' to Netanyahu. 'The opposition got what they deserved,' he argued, suggesting their commitment to a 'racist ethno-centric version of Zionism' outweighed their desire to remove Netanyahu.
Coalition Possibilities
Levy outlined four possible scenarios: a new election; Likud drawing defectors from the opposition; a unity government led Netanyahu; or Eisenkot forming a minority government with Arab support. Mairav Zonszein of the Crisis Group doubted Eisenkot would work with Netanyahu due to demands for a state inquiry into October 7 failures and universal military service.
Bennett has previously worked with Arab parties, while Lieberman, despite opposing Netanyahu, remains a hard-right politician. Analysts speculate Netanyahu might seek military escalation against Iran as a pretext to establish an emergency government.
President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders before tasking a candidate with forming a government within 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, the mandate passes to another MP, and if that fails, new elections are called.
Related
