Israel Election Deadlock Could Shake Oil, Stocks and Crypto Markets
Israel's election ended without a clear winner on October 27, leaving the future of its war with Iran uncertain and potentially affecting global oil prices, inflation and financial markets.
Exit polls showed Netanyahu's Likud projected to remain the largest individual party with 24 seats, against 22 for Eisenkot's Yashar. Neither secured the 61 parliamentary seats needed to govern. The Arab parties, including Joint List and Ra'am, secured a projected 18 seats, up from 10 in the outgoing parliament, with nationwide turnout reaching 77.7%.
Market implications
The uncertainty comes as oil traders weigh the possibility of renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Brent crude settled at $113.88 on Tuesday, with the market already carrying a substantial premium for geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz, which carried around 25% of global seaborne oil trade in 2025, is a key concern.
Netanyahu has just lost this election, and resoundingly. The numbers tell the story.
Investor concerns
Five major financial institutions have already assessed the risks. Any serious disruption to oil supplies could raise energy costs worldwide, complicate interest-rate cuts and pressure riskier investments. A credible diplomatic breakthrough could lower oil prices and ease inflation concerns, potentially supporting equities and Bitcoin.
For investors, the immediate question is whether Israel's political deadlock delays a settlement or allows the confrontation with Iran to continue. With official election results still pending and US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, uncertainty could persist beyond this week.
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