Israel election too close to call as exit polls give Netanyahu bloc slightly fewer seats

The result sets off weeks of jockeying over who can form a coalition government before a prime minister is declared or another round of elections is called. Exit polls suggested Eisenkot's bloc would win most seats by a slight margin, representing a sharp electoral rebuke to Netanyahu after his Likud emerged as the largest party.

The predicted haul of up to 18 Knesset seats for Israeli Arab parties is likely to make them the kingmakers in what seem certain to be protracted talks to form a new government, with Netanyahu likely falling short of the support required to form a new coalition.

Record Turnout

Tuesday's election drew the highest turnout in 50 years, with 77.1% of eligible voters participating by 6pm – a rise of about 9% on the previous election. There were marked increases in the number of serving military members voting, with reports of tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad returning to cast their ballots.

Voting was heavy in major cities including Tel Aviv and Haifa, with long queues in some locations. The pattern was repeated in Israeli-Arab towns, many of which have a long history of boycotting elections.

Netanyahu's Claims

Netanyahu and his far-right coalition allies launched what critics condemned as a scare campaign, warning that large numbers of Israeli Arabs would be voting. In a recorded message, Netanyahu suggested Arabs and the left were trying to steal the election, with Likud claiming suspected irregularities at hundreds of polling stations used by Israeli Arab voters.

Opposition Response

Opposition figures were quick to cast the exit polls as a defeat for Netanyahu. Former prime minister Yair Lapid declared: "Netanyahu's bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse. The public has told them to get out."

Eisenkot called the exit polls a vote of "no-confidence in Netanyahu. If these are the final results, it's a complete victory for Israel's mainstream majority. I'll work immediately to enact the will of the nation, to change Netanyahu's government … as soon as possible."

Despite the results, the complexity of Israel's fragmented political system means it will probably be some time before the shape of any future government is clear. The stalemate could yet work in Netanyahu's favor, allowing him to remain in power in a caretaker capacity while coalition talks continue.