Why Ukraine may be involved in Mali's conflict

According to a CNN investigation published this month, approximately 15 Ukrainian drone specialists are reportedly supporting Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, potentially extending the Russia-Ukraine conflict to Africa's Sahel region. Their common enemy is the military government in Bamako and its Russian allies.

The alleged involvement raises questions about the reliability of the information and what price Ukraine might pay for engaging in Africa. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the reports, though former military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov cryptically suggested Ukraine protects its interests worldwide, including "in the burning desert sands" of Africa.

Strategic Motives

Marta Oliynyk-D'omochko, coordinator of the African Studies Program at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, sees a strategic motive behind any potential involvement. "Ukraine's main interest is to weaken Russia's influence around the world," she told DW. If Russia's military influence were rolled back, she added, the economic opportunities arising from it would also diminish.

Russian historian Irina Filatova considers Ukrainian support for the Tuareg movement plausible, though she has no independent evidence to confirm such involvement. She notes that setbacks in Mali could tie up Russian resources and undermine Moscow's reputation as a security partner.

Controversial Partners

Kyiv's alleged partners are controversial. The Tuareg separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) cooperates with the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), a jihadist group affiliated with al-Qaeda. This cooperation creates a political risk for Ukraine, as any support for the FLA could indirectly benefit JNIM.

Oliynyk-D'omochko describes the relationship as a tactical arrangement rather than a comprehensive alliance: "It is more of a situational alliance against a common enemy than a comprehensive partnership." The FLA is focused on northern Mali and pursuing self-determination or extensive autonomy, not seeking to replace the government in Bamako.

Diplomatic Fallout

Following military coups in 2020 and 2021, Mali turned away from Western partners toward Russia. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, all ruled by military governments, have accused Ukraine of supporting armed groups and threatening their territorial integrity. The three nations have severed diplomatic relations with Kyiv and deepened cooperation with Russia.

In September, Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop accused Ukraine at the United Nations of "providing clear and open support to terrorist groups and other mafia-like groups to undermine our country's territorial integrity," though he provided no evidence. Filatova considers Ukrainian activities in the region plausible but says she has no evidence to substantiate the accusations.

For Ukraine, engagement in Mali could offer a relatively low-cost way to weaken Russian interests beyond Europe by training local fighters in drone operations. However, any alleged cooperation with separatists could undermine Ukraine's message of equal partnerships with African countries and affect how potential partners view Ukraine.