How did Lula beat Bolsonaro after losing Brazil’s first-round election?

The 80-year-old leftist secured an unprecedented fourth term on Sunday, becoming the first candidate since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985 to win a presidential run-off after finishing second in the opening round. Lula received 51.79% of valid votes, or 64.26 million ballots, compared with Bolsonaro's 48.21%, or 59.83 million votes, according to the final tally.

The result marked a dramatic reversal from the October 4 first round, when Bolsonaro won 47.03% against Lula's 45.16%, a lead of approximately 2.2 million votes. Turnout on Sunday was 80.8%, nearly 2% higher than the previous round, when 78.92% of the electorate cast their votes.

Controversial aftermath

Bolsonaro refused to concede and called for the run-off result to be annulled after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting to be extended by two hours. Both candidates had requested extensions, citing transport disruptions and severe weather.

The controversy echoes the aftermath of the 2022 election, when Flavio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept his defeat. He was subsequently convicted of plotting a coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison, which he is serving under house arrest.

Lula's comeback strategy

Lula's comeback was driven by a revitalized grassroots campaign, youth mobilization and a shift towards digital campaigning, analysts said. Young Brazilians spontaneously organized online after Bolsonaro's first-round victory, creating what became known as 'Lula's army'.

Editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, Gustavo Ribeiro, noted that Lula's campaign had initially appeared complacent. 'Lula's campaign also got its act together after a first round in which it acted as if this election was in the bag and essentially running an anachronistic, mostly offline campaign,' he said.

The campaign really pivoted towards a digital mentality and a grassroots effort. I would say this is more the merit of Lula, even if Bolsonaro just worked to run off the clock.

Key factors in victory

Experts identified several factors contributing to Lula's victory. Academic Vieira argued that Bolsonaro had become overconfident after winning the first round. 'In the first week, he was already behaving as if he were already the president-elect. He was appointing ministers,' the economics professor pointed out.

Ribeiro questioned Bolsonaro's political appeal: 'He does not have his father's charisma. He was essentially running on his father's last name.' Higher turnout was another important factor, with abstention falling from approximately 21% in the first round to about 19% in the run-off.

Challenges ahead

Despite his victory, Lula faces a conservative-dominated Congress that could severely restrict his legislative agenda. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and its allies could control more than 280 seats out of 513 in the lower house, and up to 50 out of 81 Senate seats, potentially giving the opposition majorities in both chambers.

Economic pressures pose another considerable challenge. Brazil's public debt has exceeded 82% of GDP, according to the World Bank, while the government forecasts growth of just 2.3% next year. Brancoli also noted Lula would need to address security and household debt, two issues that helped make the election competitive.

The president's age raises further questions about the future of his Workers' Party. 'There's no one that could substitute him, and he's older,' Brancoli said. 'We can definitely expect Lula's government is not going to be able to push for a broad agenda. You'll get small wins, and you'll have to negotiate with those groups.'