Why Israel’s wartime election isn’t just about the battle with Iran and Hamas

For a country that has spent three years fighting on several fronts, Israel's election campaign has been strikingly quiet on how those wars were fought. Israel's conduct in Gaza, which led to an international arrest warrant for Netanyahu, has barely been debated. Nor have its occupation of much of southern Lebanon and parts of Syria, or the two wars it launched against Iran.

All these military actions enjoy broad support among Jewish Israelis. The main contenders have instead argued over Netanyahu himself: his character, his responsibility for the security failures of 7 October, military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men and his 2023 attempt to overhaul the judiciary.

There is also little to separate the two main blocs on the Palestinian question. Both are dominated by parties that back Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank and oppose a Palestinian state, and no leading candidate is calling for a revival of the peace process.

The shadow of 7 October

Reminders of the war are everywhere. Stickers bearing the faces of fallen soldiers line train stations, alongside fading yellow ribbons for the hostages, the last of whom came home under a ceasefire deal last year.

According to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), a Jerusalem-based think tank, around 68% of Jewish Israelis say their views on 7 October are central to how they will vote. Among Arab citizens, the figure is 32%, with most naming crime as their main concern.

Military service divides voters

The issue that has stirred the most anger is conscription. Military service is compulsory for most Jewish Israelis, but Netanyahu's coalitions have long depended on ultra-Orthodox parties that insist yeshiva students be exempt.

Resentment has grown as reservists have been called up repeatedly and the army struggles with a manpower shortage. Around 13,000 ultra-Orthodox men turn 18 each year, but fewer than one in ten enlist.

About a quarter of Jewish voters told the IDI the issue would weigh on their choice. IDI president Yohanan Plesner said it was "probably the number one issue" for the anti-Netanyahu camp.

Netanyahu's main challenger, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, has pledged to end the de facto exemptions. Eisenkot, a centrist, lost his son and two nephews in the fighting in Gaza.

Economic concerns sidelined

Living costs are a major concern but have barely featured. Research by Sarit Menahem-Carmi of Reichman University's Aaron Institute for Economic Policy found that Israel is now more expensive than wealthy European countries such as Austria, Denmark and Sweden.

The IDI found 38% of Jewish Israelis rank the economy as their first or second priority, rising to 46% among Arab citizens. Netanyahu credits his policies with fuelling growth and a thriving tech sector, while opponents say many have been left behind.