Could Europe’s autumn of discontent threaten the survival of the EU? | Catherine De Vries

Europe is experiencing an autumn of unusual discontent as protesters from Paris to Milan to Madrid express deepening anxiety about the future. Their anger stems from the gap between expectations and government delivery on issues like unaffordable housing, stagnant wages, spiraling cost of living and failing schools.

The electoral consequences are already materializing. Spain heads to snap polls next month after parliament rejected key housing reforms, while France begins presidential elections in April. Poland, Italy and several smaller states will vote before the end of 2027, with extremely high stakes.

Simultaneously, national leaders face mounting international pressures regarding Ukraine, US security guarantees and economic competition with China, demanding greater European cooperation despite increasingly difficult national politics.

Union's resilience

The EU represents a market of 450 million people with an economy of nearly €19tn, the third largest globally after the US and China. No individual EU country comes close to this scale—Germany, the largest, has 84 million people and an economy about one-sixth the size of the US.

Despite frequent declarations of impending collapse, the EU has proven remarkably durable through crises like Brexit, the pandemic and energy shocks. The very traits that frustrate Eurosceptics—slow decision-making, endless negotiations and messy compromises—have paradoxically become sources of strength.

Budget tensions

Negotiations over the next seven-year budget worth almost €2tn highlight the difficulty of achieving consensus. While all agree on greater European security and economic competitiveness, countries dispute who should pay. France advocates for new EU-wide taxes, which others resist.

With France's presidential election approaching, Macron has urged leaders to strike a budget deal by Christmas, warning that political maneuvering room would shrink if Marine Le Pen succeeds him. Though Le Pen no longer discusses leaving the euro or Brexit-style referendums, her platform would undermine the EU from within.

Public demands

French, Italian and Spanish citizens demand functioning public services, affordable housing, economic and national security, and greater control over their futures. Younger Europeans particularly face economic uncertainty about housing and employment.

Despite this pessimism, young Europeans remain among the EU's strongest supporters, with 90% favoring greater unity and 78% wanting the EU to have more resources to act. This support gives Europe both opportunity and responsibility to deliver tangible improvements.

Decisions on defense, industrial policy and social protection will involve difficult trade-offs. If European cooperation focuses more on preserving institutions than addressing citizens' concerns, the current discontent could increasingly turn against the EU itself.