Trump Calls Off Iran Strike But Will Oil Hold Above $100?
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell as low as $101.69 on Sunday night after President Donald Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran, leaving US oil above $100.
The global benchmark Brent remains near $116, with Goldman Sachs estimating nearly $25 of that price is a war risk premium.
The dip in WTI follows a Sunday announcement by President Donald Trump that no strike would happen that day, though he suggested Washington might still complete its military campaign or strike a deal.
Qatari mediators visited Tehran, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country should still pursue a peace deal.
Geopolitical Risks Remain High
In contrast, Iran’s parliament speaker said Washington miscalculated in launching the war and must find a way out.
The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed missiles and drones that Yemen’s Houthi group fired at the kingdom.
Shiptracker Kpler counted at least 18 reported vessel attacks over two weeks, highlighting the threat to Gulf shipping.
Washington and Israel have reportedly drafted Iran strike plans for after the Nov. 3 US midterm elections.
Market Outlook and Inflation Impact
WTI settled at $67.02 on Feb. 27, a day before the war began, and Goldman forecasts Brent at $90 in December.
With Brent about $13.50 above WTI, a $90 Brent would therefore imply WTI in the mid-$70s.
Dutch bank ING said the premium would erode slowly if flows continue uninhibited, but saw no sign yet.
Higher crude feeds fuel bills and inflation, which matters for stocks and crypto since stickier inflation can keep interest rates high and weigh on risk assets.
What Happens Next
Oil above $100 therefore hinges on whether Qatari mediation delivers before another attack on Gulf shipping or Saudi sites.
The market remains highly sensitive to any escalation, and analysts are closely watching the situation in the coming weeks.
Related
