Trump’s tariff pause angers some US ranchers, boosts Brazil beef imports
In late August, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on certain beef tariffs, making beef cheaper to import, particularly from Brazil.
That decision was framed as a way to bring down prices for consumers, but it landed as a betrayal for many US ranchers, who were getting ready to take their cattle to market. The United States Cattlemen's Association, the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and the Farm Bureau, all member organisations that represent ranchers, opposed the decision.
It is too soon to tell how the decision will ultimately affect grocery prices, but the impact on ranchers was immediate: prices at cattle auctions plummeted, temporarily lowering ranchers' profits. Rural Republican members of Congress also distanced themselves, but it is not yet clear how ranchers will vote in the midterms.
Political fallout uncertain
Chad Basinger, a rancher in Pretty Prairie, Kansas, is sceptical that the imports will have a significant impact. Ranchers will also be weighing the administration's other actions, such as the $8bn in farm relief announced in Kansas on October 19.
I know there's people that have said, 'Well I'm just gonna vote for the other party' or 'I'm not gonna vote' or 'This administration's really let me down'. So yes, there will be people that swing the other way in the midterms. But overall I don't think it'll be that much.
Basinger's House of Representatives district in Kansas is expected to remain safely Republican in the midterms. But Kansas faces an unexpectedly tight Senate race and ranchers in House districts elsewhere may find themselves closer to the political fringe: potential swing districts in Montana, Iowa, Texas and Colorado are all in cattle country.
Tariff changes add volatility
This is not the first time that Trump's tariffs have impacted cattle supplies. Last year, the president added a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, a key trade partner for beef. In February, Trump allowed more tariff-free beef imports from Argentina. In August, he did the same for Brazil and Paraguay.
Both tariff changes led to swift price swings in cattle futures markets. David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University who advises ranchers, said that high prices this year should have given ranchers the confidence to invest in the future and expand their herds.
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