How is the US-Israeli war on Iran causing havoc in Europe?

Several Western European nations have expressed their opposition to the potential resumption of the Iran war, as spiralling global oil prices have worsened the cost of living crisis across Europe. Countries such as Germany and the UK, which initially remained silent on the US-Israeli bombardment of Iran, are now calling for diplomacy to end the war that has disrupted global oil supplies.

Continued disruption to energy supplies is pushing up household costs as winter approaches, adding fuel to protests over living standards that have engulfed European capitals in recent weeks. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei highlighted what he described as a shift in Germany's position on attacks against Iran.

Shift in European Position

When the US and Israel launched attacks on February 28, leaders of Britain, France and Germany issued a joint statement condemning Iran's retaliatory strikes but not the initial attacks. Nearly eight months into the war, European governments are now explicitly warning against another military campaign.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned that further escalation between Iran and the US 'would create nothing but losers and would undoubtedly have very serious consequences for hydrocarbon prices.' The foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany and Italy met counterparts from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt in Istanbul to discuss the conflict.

Military Base Disputes

Europe's divisions have been particularly visible over access to military bases and airspace. Germany said early in the war that it would not restrict US use of its bases, including Ramstein. Britain initially withheld permission for opening attacks but later authorized US use of British bases for specific operations.

France allowed US support aircraft at Istres while saying they would support defense of regional partners rather than participate in attacks on Iran. Spain went further, refusing permission for attacks from jointly operated bases and closing its airspace to US aircraft involved in the war.

These restrictions provoked Donald Trump, who called Spain 'terrible' and threatened to cut off trade. The dispute has exposed a widening argument over whether alliance commitments require European governments to facilitate a war they did not choose.

Economic Impact and Protests

According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Europe's bill for imported fossil fuels has increased by 106 billion euros, while gas prices have risen about 140 percent since late February and diesel prices have doubled. Brent crude, which settled at $72.48 a barrel before the war, reached $126.41 in April and remains above $100.

The war has also impacted food and fertilizer markets, with disruptions sending urea prices up by about 70 percent. Shipping companies are facing increased insurance premiums and rerouting to longer journeys. Protests over living costs have been seen across France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Albania.

Sociologist Donatella della Porta noted that opposition to war is central to recent protests by young people across Europe, alongside anger over military spending at the expense of welfare. 'Young protesters are afraid that their future will be stolen not only by global warming but also by wars in which they will be sent to die on the battlefield,' she said.