Brazil becomes next test for Latin America’s surging conservative movement
Brazil's 158 million voters will decide whether to advance Latin America's conservative movement in Sunday's presidential runoff between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
The first round three weeks ago saw Bolsonaro win 47% to Lula's 45%, defying predictions that Lula would win by single digits. Neither candidate secured a majority, forcing the runoff. Bolsonaro's congressional candidates also performed strongly, positioning Brazil for one of its most conservative congresses in years.
Regional Conservative Surge
Brazil's election follows a series of conservative victories across Latin America that began with Argentina's election of Libertarian outsider Javier Milei in 2023. In 2025, Ecuador, Bolivia, Honduras and Chile all voted for conservative heads of state. This year, Peru's Keiko Fujimori narrowly won the presidency, while Colombia's conservative attorney Abelardo de la Espriella defeated left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda.
Security Concerns Drive Shift
Commentators attribute the rightward shift to growing concerns over safety and security, with voters approving proposals to increase police and military presence to combat crime and drug trafficking. Leftist parties have struggled to address economic concerns like inflation, rising food costs, and energy prices that have affected working and middle-class voters.
President Donald Trump has heralded these electoral results as vindication for his hardline approach to security, crime, and migration policies, as well as a stamp of approval for the new Shield of the Americas initiative.
Family Legacy and Legal Battles
The election carries significant personal histories. Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to free his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence on house arrest for allegedly plotting a coup after the 2022 election. Meanwhile, Lula himself was sentenced to 12 years in prison on corruption charges during Operation Car Wash before being freed on a technicality by the Brazilian Supreme Court.
Bolsonaro's Path to Victory
Bolsonaro enters the second round with structural advantages, including backing from three of the four other major candidates who failed to advance: self-help author Augusto Cury, former Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado, and former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema. Lula must now win a significant majority of voters who supported right-wing or center-right candidates in the first round.
The election may hinge on voters choosing against candidates rather than for them. Lula, who has appeared on seven presidential ballots over 40 years, broke his 2022 promise to serve only one term. While he remains a dominant figure in Brazilian politics, his third term has faced criticism, and many voters express pessimism about an unprecedented fourth term.
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