Saudi Arabia looks to US for an AI edge as Yemen's Houthis up pressure

Under attack from the militant Houthi group in neighboring Yemen, Saudi Arabia has asked numerous allies for help. That includes the United States, even though media reports that US President Donald Trump refused when Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman asked him to take direct military action against the Houthis.

However, the US is providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence, which includes a targeting tool that uses artificial intelligence, or AI. A September report by US broadcaster CNN, quoting several unnamed American officials, said between 100 and 200 US soldiers were in Saudi Arabia as part of a new joint force command to facilitate this.

The US personnel were helping the Saudis "use a targeting tool that allows military officers to see in real-time what is happening on the battlefield," CNN reported. Officials said the system in Saudi Arabia was similar to that known as the Maven Smart System, or MSS for short, which the US military has also used while seeking targets in Iran, Iraq and Syria.

Maven Smart System

MSS came out of what's known as Project Maven, the US's flagship artificial intelligence program for the military, first launched in 2017. MSS itself is an AI-enabled digital platform that "aggregates, organizes and visualizes vast streams of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data," analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington explained.

The software system identifies patterns in data coming from, for example, live satellite feeds or drone cameras and then labels potential targets such as possible rocket launchers, tanks or suspicious vehicle convoys. Tech commentator Bilawal Sidhu has described the MSS set up as like a "Google Earth for war."

Houthi Resistance

Up until recently, the long-simmering civil war in Yemen had been comparatively calm following an informal ceasefire negotiated in 2022. The Houthi rebel group has held large parts of northern and western Yemen since 2015. Their latest military campaign, which began in September, has seen the group take further control of Yemen's coast while ramping up attacks against Saudi Arabia.

Military campaigns against the Houthi group by Saudi Arabia, the United States and others have all failed to significantly weaken the group. This is partially because the Houthis take a "zero-sum approach," according to Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at UK think tank Chatham House.

AI Limitations

There are certain technical issues with the MSS that could prove problematic in Yemen. The Houthis tend to be highly mobile, using truck-mounted ballistic missiles and small drone swarms as they operate from hills and canyons. It's possible that fighters might be long gone before they can be attacked even with AI assistance.

Factors such as changes in desert terrain, dust storms, high wind, snowfall and dense foliage can reduce MSS's success rate. There is also a worrying ethical aspect to shortening the kill chain. When the US military used MSS while attacking Iran in late February, the AI-powered system facilitated hits on more than 1,000 targets within the first 24 hours, including a school where an American missile killed almost 200 people, most of them children.

Antony Loewenstein, an independent journalist who has researched Israel's AI-assisted technology, doesn't believe similar technology will lead to the defeat of the Houthi group. "I don't think there's much evidence at all that using an AI tool is going to make much difference on the ground, except for causing huge amounts of civilian casualties," he told DW.