Ten days that could shake the world: democratic norms at stake in four pivotal elections

According to the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute, democratic freedoms globally have declined to levels last seen in 1978. These elections represent a critical juncture where democratic norms could either be strengthened or further eroded as autocracy advances worldwide.

The elections are closely interlinked, with Trump's MAGA movement supporting Netanyahu, Vučić, and Bolsonaro. Israeli-built Pegasus spyware has been found in phones of Serbian pro-democracy activists, while Serbia has committed $2 billion to Israeli defense systems.

Brazil's democratic test

Brazil's runoff presidential elections feature President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro. If Bolsonaro wins, he threatens to change the constitution, pardon his father for plotting a coup, and ease environmental restrictions for the Amazon rainforest.

Bolsonaro has pledged to free his father and punish judiciary members involved in his prosecution. He campaigns on hard-line law and order policies, including lowering the age of criminal responsibility below 18. Brazil currently has better democratic credentials than the UK and US according to V-Dem's measures.

Serbia's student movement

Serbia faces its stiffest challenge in 12 years under President Aleksandar Vučić, with a student-led protest movement fielding academics and technocrats on the slogan 'Serbia or Mafia?'. Vučić has corroded democratic pillars, taking over most broadcast channels and turning state institutions into political tools.

Candidates adhere to direct democracy with decisions made by large plenum meetings, avoiding identifiable leaders. The SNS has a history of using thugs to disrupt opposition rallies.

Israel and US elections

Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu faces challengers while overseeing democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. He is wanted by the international criminal court for war crimes in Gaza and risks legal jeopardy from a corruption trial if he loses. His far-right coalition trails an opposition bloc that refuses to form a coalition with Arab parties.

In the US midterm elections on November 3, Democrats are likely to gain control of at least one chamber of Congress, potentially reining in Trump's excesses that have caused the US to plummet in the V-Dem Institute's Liberal Democracy Index. The outcomes of these elections will significantly impact global democratic trajectories.