Trump Says Iran Strikes Could Come Today. Can Bitcoin Hold $80,000?
President Donald Trump said the US could strike Iran as soon as Sunday, or reach a deal instead, as Bitcoin trades at $80,546 after briefly dipping below $80,000 on Saturday.
The potential military action comes as Bitcoin trades near a critical psychological level. On October 8, when Trump pledged to hold off on strikes until the November 3 midterms, Bitcoin dipped to $80,393 but closed at $81,754. Two weeks later, on October 22, when reports emerged about post-midterm US and Israeli strike plans, Bitcoin fell from $84,898 to $80,939.
As talk of a weekend strike built, Bitcoin fell to $79,220 on Saturday before recovering to close at $80,888. The pattern shows escalation headlines cut Bitcoin by 2% to 5% intraday, while pledges of restraint brought no lasting rally.
Leveraged Longs Under Pressure
The $80,000 level is critical for both retail and institutional holders. CoinGlass data shows $543.68 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $461.19 million. Glassnode places the cost basis of ETF and treasury-company investors between $80,000 and $81,500.
A daily close below $80,000 would leave the average holder at a loss. It would also bring the True Market Mean near $77,600 into view.
Market Impact Uncertain
Bitcoin trades through the weekend, so it would likely absorb the first reaction to any strike. Past strikes offer mixed guidance - when war began on February 28, Bitcoin fell to $63,030 but closed at $66,973. After early September strikes, it dipped to $76,264 then jumped 5.08% the next day.
Gold could also face pressure when traditional markets reopen, as Bitcoin's correlation with gold set an eight-year record in September. Oil adds inflation risk, with Brent at $117.30 on Friday. A strike could push it higher before the Fed's October 28 decision.
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