Who Israel elects matters, and not just for Israelis

In Israel's convoluted political discourse, just days before a general election that many regard as one of the most consequential in the country's history, the prevailing perception is that the current coalition and the opposition parties are running neck and neck. This is far from the full picture. Most polls suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners will fall short of a parliamentary majority.

Most opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition government with the parties that primarily represent Israel's Palestinian citizens, commonly referred to as the 'Arab parties'. As a result, the opposition could also struggle to secure the support needed to govern. If the opinion polls prove accurate, a new government could emerge, led by retired Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff from the centre right.

Policy Shift Possibilities

The fundamental question is whether the new leadership will bring about a change in policy on the most crucial issues facing the country and, by extension, the Palestinians and the wider region. After nearly two decades in power over the past three decades, including the last four years at the helm of what has arguably been the most far-right government in Israel's history, Netanyahu may leave behind a deeply scarred country.

Netanyahu's decisions on national security have been distorted by his standing trial in three corruption cases on charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery. A new prime minister, unencumbered by these personal legal considerations, would have greater freedom to govern without the overriding motive of remaining in power at any cost to avoid accountability.

Domestic and Regional Impact

A government without Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich would be more likely to cooperate with United States President Donald Trump's peace plan and the Board of Peace. This could improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip and pave the way towards some degree of an Israeli withdrawal, even if an immediate and complete withdrawal remains unlikely.

The opposition government would likely halt and reverse the judicial overhaul, which amounted to an assault on the separation of powers and the democratic system. It would also be more likely to base appointments to senior civil service positions on merit rather than political affiliation or personal loyalty to the prime minister.

A new government might also suspend or cancel the approved E1 settlement project, for which construction tenders have already been issued. This could be an important first step towards containing settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank. It might also adopt an approach that relies less exclusively on military force in Lebanon and Syria while remaining open to exploring diplomatic avenues.

Limits of Change

The government that might emerge from the opposition parties, while far from ideal, could serve as a government of containment – akin to the fictional 'little Dutch boy' who plugged a hole in a dike with his finger to prevent a catastrophic flood. Eisenkot himself opposes Palestinian statehood and favours continued Israeli security control over Palestinian territory.

The opposition's refusal to work with Arab parties underscores the limits of the change it offers. Yet, under the current circumstances, changing the political discourse and restoring a degree of normality to domestic debate and to Israel's relations with its regional and international partners could make a real difference. The electorate must give this possibility a chance at the ballot box for any change to occur.