Brazil faces a tense Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff with US influence over Latin America at stake

Polls before Sunday's vote show the two candidates in a tight race, with neither having secured the more than 50% needed to become Brazil's next leader in January. The election comes after Bolsonaro bested Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round earlier this month, when more than 33 million voters out of nearly 160 million abstained.

Ideological Divide

The difference between the candidates is stark. Bolsonaro and Lula hold opposing views on issues ranging from U.S.-Brazil relations and climate change to social welfare. A Bolsonaro victory would represent a rightward shift for Latin America's most populous country and largest economy, following Trump allies' wins in Chile, Peru and Colombia this year.

A Lula win would leave Brazil and Mexico, the region's two most populous countries, with left-of-center leaders. The contest resembles a rematch between Brazil's polarized political forces, with polls suggesting this election could be even closer than four years ago when Lula beat Bolsonaro's father by the narrowest margin since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985.

Corruption Concerns

Both candidates have faced corruption allegations involving family members and allies. Bolsonaro admitted accepting about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father's life and is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case.

Lula spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were eventually annulled. Lula has portrayed Bolsonaro, whose father is under house arrest for attempting a coup, as a threat to democracy, while Bolsonaro has promised to seek an amnesty for his father if elected.

U.S. Influence

Lula has criticized the risk of U.S. intervention in Brazilian elections, pointing to the Trump administration's high tariffs against Brazilian exports, sanctions on a Supreme Court justice, and classifying drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Bolsonaro has emphasized his proximity to the White House and promised better deals with the Trump administration, particularly regarding Brazil's rare minerals economy.

Supreme Court Stakes

The next president will name at least three Supreme Court justices out of 11 due to upcoming retirements. Bolsonaro has long targeted the country's top court, which has been rocked by a corruption scandal, and promised judiciary reform. Lula has lured undecided voters with incentives like debt relief for small businesses and free public transportation on weekends, while the Senate recently approved the six-day working week—a popular government-backed proposal.