Ethereum Flashes Same Signal That Triggered June’s Rebound
Ethereum (ETH) experienced its largest exchange outflow in over four months, with roughly 169,770 coins leaving exchanges, a pattern similar to one that preceded June's price rebound.
Ethereum (ETH) saw roughly 169,770 coins leave exchanges on net, according to Santiment. This marked its largest outflow day in over four months, a pattern last observed just before June's price rebound. Fewer coins on exchanges typically means less supply available for sellers, potentially creating upward price pressure.
However, US spot Ethereum funds have experienced significant outflows, totaling $1.18 billion in October, indicating that institutional buyers have yet to enter the market despite the reduced exchange supply.
Historical Pattern
Santiment linked the current outflow spike to June 5, when approximately 223,800 ETH left exchanges. That day, ETH had sunk to its lowest price since April 2025, marking a local buy point before the price recovered quickly. The firm cautioned that while history may rhyme, it doesn't necessarily repeat.
If large outflows continue while ETH holds current levels, the firm said supply would increasingly favor buyers.
ETF Money and US Demand
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows on 14 of 16 trading days in October, totaling $1.18 billion through October 22. Over the same period, total net assets slipped to $14.57 billion, the lowest since August 21.
Coinbase buyers appear equally hesitant, with CryptoQuant's Coinbase Premium Index reading -0.134 after sliding through most of October. A negative reading means ETH trades lower on Coinbase than on Binance, often interpreted as weaker US demand. Exchange-wide cash reserves have also thinned since April, leaving less fresh money available to buy dips.
Analyst Price Targets
ETH traded at $2,377.29 at press time, down 1.03% over the past 24 hours. Santiment identified $2,400 as the immediate pivot level, with a sustained reclaim of $2,500 strengthening the bottoming case. A drop below $2,330 would weaken this outlook.
Analyst Ted Pillows sets a slightly higher bar for a trend change, while Michaël van de Poppe looks below $2,300 for an entry point. "I'd be max bidding everything beneath $2,300 as then I think that we'll reverse quite quickly," he said. Ash Crypto pointed to a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart, suggesting significant upside potential if the setup plays out.
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