Keeping the world safe when no one is in charge

International politics today feels like a collective sleepwalk into the abyss. Three trends are particularly alarming: artificial intelligence globalizing and turbocharging threats, no state strong enough to impose order, and geopolitical blocs hardening with international cooperation increasingly portrayed as weakness. This dangerous combination raises fears of repeating history's worst moments.

Much attention has focused on the risk of war between the US and China, as shifts in hegemonic power historically produce conflict. However, what is actually happening is the emergence of an international order with no hegemon, where several states and regional blocs compete for influence. Using international relations theory, we are approaching genuine global multipolarity.

Artificial intelligence is adding further stress to existing power structures. While transforming us into figures with seemingly limitless capabilities, AI is also disempowering everyone, creating new threats and making old ones harder to contain. Larger states are finding it increasingly difficult to convert power into control.

Military limitations

This difficulty is already evident in the military domain, where inexpensive drones and AI-assisted targeting have changed traditional hierarchies. The US, with its vast military arsenal, is unable to force an isolated and bankrupt theocracy in Iran to bend the knee. Russia's failed attempt at subjugating Ukraine demonstrates how much more powerful states may not get their way.

New technology is making the loss of control even more evident in other domains. The next pandemic could originate in a hidden laboratory and prove far deadlier than COVID-19. Devastating cyberattacks could be launched from someone's garage, while frontier AI systems could spiral beyond human control. AI could lower barriers to developing nuclear weapons, and biological weapons could proliferate unnoticed.

Borderless threats

Such threats recognize no borders. If one state establishes effective safety measures, nefarious actors will simply move elsewhere. A state can possess overwhelming military and economic capabilities and still be unable to stop a pathogen, prevent a cyberattack or contain dangerous technologies. Strategies based on peace through strength will be like fighting mosquitoes with heavy weaponry—costly and unworkable.

Yet much of the world is doubling down on precisely these strategies. Some state leaders focus on winning AI and achieving digital supremacy, while negotiating mutual constraints through international law is seen as naive or self-defeating. Such approaches can destroy humanity. Many underestimate risks that accumulate over time—a 1 percent annual probability of global catastrophe translates into roughly a 63 percent chance over a century.

Institutional solutions

Military strength remains necessary, but the only way to ensure real security in this new paradigm is through powerful international institutions and laws. Global standards must be developed and enforced, with international organizations allowed to monitor activities within countries' borders. Governments will need to share sensitive information regularly. Peace through cooperation must be the new global slogan—not out of altruism but because it's the only way to achieve security.

Fortunately, existing institutions like the UN, WTO, and WHO retain unparalleled authority and legitimacy. The IAEA has shown that international monitoring can effectively verify compliance even in sensitive areas. Recent encouraging signs include the WHO's Pandemic Agreement and the UN's BBNJ Agreement to protect biodiversity on the high seas.

Norwegian initiative

Norway has made it a priority to break the curve by defining respect for international law and effective multilateral institutions as a core national security interest. As one of the UN's largest financial contributors, Norway is using its leverage to push for greater effectiveness. Through cross-regional coalitions with like-minded countries, Norway aims to make a real difference despite its small size.

One recent example came in September when Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Finnish President Alexander Stubb launched a joint Call for Action to establish global oversight and control over advanced AI models. Countries from around the globe have joined the initiative, which hopefully can serve as a springboard for concrete international action in this field.

No one is in charge in a multipolar world, precisely as technology makes threats harder to contain. The defining challenge will be to couple multipolarity with multilateralism. Building effective institutions when no one can impose order is difficult, but just as previous generations overcame profound challenges, so can we—though whether we can muster the necessary resolve without first experiencing another global crisis remains to be seen.