North Korea has opened up bridges to Russia and China – in which direction will it go?
North Korea has opened two major border crossings, including a new bridge to China and the first road link to Russia, intensifying regional competition for influence over the reclusive regime.
The New Yalu River Bridge connects the north-eastern Chinese city of Dandong with Sinuiju in North Korea and has four lanes stretching 3km (1.9 miles) across the Yalu river. It opened on 15 October, about a month after another major crossing between North Korea and Russia - the first road bridge across their short shared border, named the Yakov Novichenko Bridge. These developments have raised concerns about intensifying competition for influence over North Korea between China and Russia.
Geopolitical Concerns
The bridges come amid signs that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is prioritizing ties with Moscow. Since late 2024, Pyongyang has sent ammunition and as many as 16,000 troops to support Russia's war in Ukraine, and Kim has held two summits with Putin in the past three years. In 2024, the leaders signed a mutual defense pact that includes a clause requiring mutual aid if attacked.
China's interest in buttressing its influence in North Korea is certainly reinforced by the diversifying North Korea-Russia relationship — ties that China tolerates but watches closely as they add complexity to its relationship with its provocative neighbour.
Strategic Benefits
In return for military support, Pyongyang is receiving hard currency, battlefield experience for its troops, weapons technology, and opportunities to extend political and economic cooperation beyond its traditional ally China. For North Korea, the bridges represent increased trade opportunities, while for China, the geopolitical value may outweigh economic benefits given its limited trade with North Korea compared to other partners.
The North Korean regime is thought to be reluctant to increase its economic dependence on China, despite being its biggest trading partner and aid donor. Pyongyang may still resent Beijing's previous support for UN sanctions targeting its nuclear weapons program, though sanctions enforcement has collapsed in the past two years.
Regional Dynamics
North Korea's open border with China contrasts sharply with its closed border with South Korea. In 2024, Pyongyang severed all rail and road links with the South after Kim abandoned the goal of peaceful reunification and declared South Korea his country's 'principal enemy.' However, experts suggest neither China nor Russia can meaningfully influence North Korea, citing Kim's refusal to surrender nuclear weapons or moderate his grip on power.
Economic Implications
Analysts expect trade across the new Yalu bridge to be modest initially but potentially significant as an indicator of Sino-North Korean relations. While Kim may leverage military cooperation with Russia to gain additional benefits from Beijing, China remains economically indispensable to North Korea in ways Russia cannot replace. The South Korean government has identified at least 17 active road and rail links connecting North Korea and China along their 1,400 km-long border.
Despite the new infrastructure, experts remain skeptical about meaningful economic reforms in North Korea. 'I think it will make reform even less likely,' Tertitskiy noted. 'Why pursue reforms and take risks when you can just get what you need from abroad?' The bridges may ultimately serve as windows into the complex relationship between Pyongyang and its neighbors rather than catalysts for significant change.
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