Serbia at a crossroads: What’s at stake and what Moscow can expect

Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is running for prime minister against a fragmented opposition seeking to capitalize on the protest movement. The result could reshape Serbia's political landscape and its delicate balancing act between Russia and the EU.

Voters will elect 250 members of the National Assembly, with 126 seats needed for a majority. A total of 18 electoral lists, comprising 2,418 candidates, are contesting the election, including the ruling coalition, student-backed candidates, established opposition parties and representatives of national minorities.

Protest Origins

The crisis began after a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station collapsed on November 1, 2024, killing 16 people. Protesters blamed the disaster on alleged corruption and failures of government oversight.

Demonstrations intensified after students and lecturers involved in a vigil commemorating the disaster at Belgrade's Faculty of Dramatic Arts on November 22, 2024 blocked traffic, prompting drivers to clash with the crowd; some of the motorists were later identified from photos posted online as Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) officials.

Students began blockading university faculties, demanding the release of documents relating to the station's renovation, accountability for attacks on protesters, an end to the prosecution of detained demonstrators and increased funding for public universities.

Political Landscape

The ruling camp is led by the 'Aleksandar Vucic – United Serbia' coalition, built around the SNS. Its longstanding partner, Ivica Dacic's Socialist Party of Serbia, is running separately under the 'Factor of Stability' banner.

The main challenger is the 'Student List – Students Are Winning,' which emerged from the protests and includes lecturers, professionals and public figures. Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos's 'European Serbia' and Milos Jovanovic's 'Authentic Right' are also running independently.

Polling Discrepancies

Opinion polls offer conflicting assessments of support for the two main contenders. An Ipsos survey published on October 22 put Vucic's coalition at 47.4%, compared with 40% for the Student List and 3.2% for Dacic's Socialists.

However, a survey published on October 20 by Nova srpska politicka misao (NSPM) instead gave the Student List 44.5% and Vucic's coalition 42.7% among decided respondents. An online survey by Nacija TV on October 21 showed a much narrower gap, with Vucic's coalition at 42.9% and the Student List at 42%.

Foreign Policy Divides

The groups challenging Vucic differ on key foreign policy issues. The Student List has said it would maintain Serbia's refusal to impose sanctions on Moscow and proposed a referendum on EU membership while opposing NATO.

European Serbia supports alignment with EU foreign policy, including sanctions against Russia. Jovanovic opposes EU membership and sanctions against Moscow, while Socialist representative Snezana Paunovic supports EU accession but has criticized the bloc's current policies.

Kosovo remains one of Serbia's most sensitive political issues. The province declared independence in 2008, a move recognized by the US and many allies but rejected by Belgrade, Russia and China. The Student List has also rejected recognizing the so-called Kosovo precedent.

Serbia applied to join the EU in 2009 and received candidate status in 2012, but accession negotiations have stalled. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos warned that Serbia is at a crossroads, saying: 'We should not risk our future members building dependencies on others that run counter to our long-term interest.'