Bitcoin ETFs shed $635 million as BTC tests their holdings’ estimated $81,500 cost basis

The Oct. 22 withdrawals were the largest daily outflow since June 25 and reversed nearly 60% of the inflows the funds attracted over the previous three trading sessions. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the selling with $254 million in withdrawals, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $217 million. Together, the two funds accounted for approximately 74.2% of the day's net outflows.

ARK Invest's ARKB shed another $109 million, while Grayscale's GBTC and Bitwise's BITB lost $30 million and $27 million, respectively. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the only fund to attract fresh capital, recording about $2 million in inflows.

Market pressures intensify

The reversal coincided with Bitcoin's decline to as low as $80,841 during the reporting period, extending the cryptocurrency's struggle to recover as escalating Middle East tensions and renewed concerns about US technology stocks unsettled financial markets. The latest withdrawals interrupted a recovery that had appeared to restore institutional demand following two consecutive weeks of ETF outflows.

Cost basis and technical levels

Glassnode estimated that US spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired their holdings at an average price of approximately $81,500, while corporate Bitcoin treasuries hold their coins at an estimated average cost of $80,200. The analytics firm found that buy orders around $80,000 had been replenished by Oct. 20, although at smaller levels than previously recorded.

Glassnode identified the True Market Mean near $77,600 as the next major downside reference if Bitcoin closes below $80,000. Conversely, holders' acquisition costs and concentrated selling orders between $85,000 and $87,500 could limit any recovery.

Broader market concerns

Massabni warned that developments beyond the cryptocurrency market could further constrain investors' willingness to accumulate Bitcoin. Escalating Middle East hostilities have raised concerns about energy supply disruptions, sending Brent crude above $110 a barrel and threatening to intensify global inflation pressures.

Persistently elevated energy prices could force central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive, reducing liquidity available for speculative investments. Pressure was also evident in US equities, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.6% on Thursday and the S&P 500 down 1.21%, partly reflecting concerns about returns on heavy artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. The Federal Reserve's next policy decision is due Oct. 28.

Ethereum ETFs also see outflows

Ethereum has faced a more sustained withdrawal of ETF capital, with US-listed funds recording about $111 million in net outflows on Oct. 22. BlackRock's ETHA lost $75 million, while its staking-focused ETHB product recorded another $17 million in withdrawals.