Brazil’s right has already changed the balance of power
Brazil's presidential election remains uncertain days before the October 25 runoff, with Flavio Bolsonaro leading incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after the first round.
The 45-year-old senator referenced polling stations inside detention facilities where staff and eligible detainees awaiting trial could cast ballots. Lula responded, I want 100 percent. Even your father. Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio's father, is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest after being convicted of plotting to overturn the 2022 election result.
On October 4, Brazil held its first round of presidential elections alongside legislative contests. Flavio received 56.1 million votes (47.03%), while Lula secured 53.9 million (45.16%). Recent polls show Lula gaining ground, though the outcome remains uncertain before the October 25 runoff.
Security and Prosperity Promises
During the debate, Flavio addressed Brazil's growing criminal presence, with nearly 69 million Brazilians reporting gangs or militias in their neighborhoods. He proposed treating these organizations as narcoterrorists, joining the US Shield of the Americas, adding 500,000 prison places, easing firearm access, and lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 (and 14 for serious crimes).
For poorer communities, Flavio promised a Ministry of Prosperity offering vocational training and credit to help families receiving government assistance start businesses. Lula countered by highlighting social gains from his previous governments and proposed stronger federal coordination of public security, also supporting lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 for certain serious offences.
Parliamentary Shift
The legislative elections reshaped Brazil's Congress. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats in the 513-seat lower house, up from 97. The PT-led bloc increased from 82 to 88 seats. The right's gains raise questions about the nature of change the Bolsonaro movement represents, as most new PL deputies were experienced politicians who had switched parties.
Supreme Court Target
The Supreme Court has become a major target of the right's parliamentary ambitions. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw Jair Bolsonaro's conviction, faced impeachment promises from candidates in the Senate elections. In the 81-seat chamber, 28 Liberal Party senators were elected, and at least 49 members expressed support for impeaching justices in some circumstances.
Congress's growing power could constrain Lula's ability to deliver economic improvements. Control over public money has shifted toward legislators, with parliamentary allocations reaching 47 billion reais ($9.3bn) in committed funds in 2025, more than four times their level 11 years earlier. Lula recently proposed making public transport free on weekends using funds set aside for local projects, though the lower house Speaker suggested alternative funding sources.
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