Russia drops cluster bombs on Ukraine as Kyiv consolidates front line
Russia has dropped cluster bombs on Ukraine while Kyiv recaptured more territory than Russia seized this year, despite US restrictions on critical satellite services.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that his soldiers have liberated more territory since autumn began than Russian forces have captured this year, despite significant challenges in its defense capabilities. Russia responded with intensified attacks, including the use of cluster bombs that specifically target civilian areas.
Ukrainian General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovalev refuted Russian claims that they had seized 1,800 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory during the autumn campaign. According to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, Ukraine has actually made a net gain of 241 square kilometers since September 1, effectively eliminating any Russian territorial advances this year.
Russian Casualties Surge
Russia's military effectiveness appears to be declining as its casualties mount. Russian losses hovered around 30,000 monthly from January to May but increased steadily through summer. Ukrainian estimates show Russia lost 46,230 soldiers in September—the highest monthly toll of the year—and 37,000 so far in October.
October 21 marked its highest daily losses of the entire war, at 2,250
Operation Vivaldi Success
Many of Ukraine's territorial gains came through Operation Vivaldi, a counteroffensive that halted a Russian pincer movement aimed at recapturing eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. General Andriy Biletskyi, who led Ukraine's Third Army Corps in this campaign, reported eliminating a Russian bridgehead on the Zherebets river and crossing to the east bank, which shortened Ukraine's front line and strengthened its defense.
The defeat of the pincer maneuver left Russia with the difficult option of a frontal assault on heavily defended cities including Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Druzhivka. Russian military expert Andrey Marochko confirmed Ukraine was reinforcing these fortress cities.
Cluster Bomb Attacks
As Russia's military fortunes waned, it escalated attacks on civilians. On October 22, Russia launched three ballistic missiles with cluster warheads into Kyiv. Ukrainian Defence Ministry senior adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov explained that these warheads detonate above ground to inflict maximum damage within a 400 by 400 meter area, with 45 submunitions exploding in the air.
One warhead struck near the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra cathedral, with Zelenskyy noting there were no military targets in the vicinity. "It is a deliberate choice of weapons, a deliberate choice of the area," he stated. Russia claimed it targeted drone manufacturing facilities, though these assertions remain unverified.
Energy Infrastructure Targeting
Russia has focused heavily on attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure, despite Trump's October 11 energy ceasefire. Zelenskyy reported over 170 strikes on energy facilities since then. Prime Minister Serhiy Khoretskyi stated that Russia's goal is to exhaust Ukrainian people by targeting electricity, heating, and water systems.
Khoretskyi noted that since taking office on July 16, Russia had attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure 2,147 times. These attacks continue despite Ukraine's resumption of targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including a strike on Russia's largest oil export terminal in St Petersburg on October 18.
US Defense Restrictions
Ukraine's defense capabilities have been hampered by US restrictions. On October 8, the US stopped providing early warning of incoming ballistic missiles for the second time this year, though this was restored on October 20. However, three other detrimental actions remain: Trump's waiver of oil export sanctions on Russia, withholding of Patriot interceptors, and suspension of Starshield satellite navigation services.
The Starshield suspension—created as a military application of Elon Musk's Starlink—particularly affects Ukraine's drone operations, which cannot function effectively above 150kmh. Trump announced on October 22 that Starlink and Starshield services would be restored, though implementation timelines remain unclear.
Diplomatic Developments
The US appears to be leveraging its defense restrictions to push for peace talks. US envoy Steve Witkoff met with Zelenskyy in Oslo on October 20 and with Putin in St Petersburg the next day. Putin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed Russia agreed "in principle" to a trilateral meeting on November 10 in Abu Dhabi, though the agenda and potential outcomes remain uncertain.
Related
