US-Iran war, then and now: How the landscape has changed since February
Seven oil tankers have caught fire or sustained damage in and around the Strait of Hormuz as Iran warns renewed US attacks could trigger a wider response.
The conflict has evolved dramatically since the first US-Israeli strikes on February 28, which initially aimed to topple Iran's leadership but failed to do so. Instead, the war has expanded to multiple fronts, with critical waterways and energy infrastructure becoming central battlegrounds. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, has become a focal point of the conflict, severely disrupting global energy markets.
Iran's regional allies have been significantly impacted. Hamas has been severely weakened by ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza, while Hezbollah's retaliation against Israel brought Lebanon into the war in March. Israel occupied approximately one-fifth of Lebanon, displacing over one million people, and still maintains significant territorial control along Lebanon's southern border.
New Fronts Emerge
The geography of the conflict has transformed since February. The Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure have become key targets, exposing Gulf countries to consequences they had hoped to avoid. Iran's attacks on shipping in the strait, combined with the US blockade of Iranian ports, have severely disrupted traffic and reduced oil and gas supplies.
US-Iran negotiations had previously centred on Iran's regional allies and nuclear programme. The Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Gulf have now become central points of contention.
Yemen has emerged as another front, with renewed fighting between Saudi-backed government forces and Iran-backed Houthis. This has brought Bab al-Mandeb strait into sharper focus, potentially compounding transportation disruptions and adding pressure on the US.
Political Landscape Shifts
Political stakes have changed significantly for both countries. In Iran, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei led to his son Mojtaba's succession, reinforcing hardliners in the government. Despite the war, public demonstrations have been minimal, though this doesn't necessarily indicate support for the government.
In the US, President Trump faces intense political pressure before potential renewed strikes. His approval rating has plummeted to 31%, the lowest of his presidency, amid frustration over high petrol prices and unpopularity of the war. The Republican party faces midterm elections in less than two weeks.
Economic and Military Realities
Economically, Iran has suffered severely. The government estimated $270bn in direct and indirect damage from US-Israeli attacks. Iran's GDP contracted by 10.1% year-on-year from March to June, while the rial has plummeted. The US has also incurred substantial costs, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating $38bn spent by August 1, contributing to US debt surpassing $40 trillion.
Militarily, the US has demonstrated its ability to strike deep inside Iran but has failed to bring down Iran's political system. Iran has excelled at asymmetric warfare, using cheap drones against expensive US defenses. The US is reportedly experiencing a severe shortage of weapons in the Middle East, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt expected to arrive by late November with about 10,000 military personnel.
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