Fake election polls expose a Kalshi loophole that could leave traders paying for fraud

Polling firm Wedgewood admitted on Oct. 20 that it fabricated most of its election surveys, and VoteHub, one of the aggregators that carried its results, is also the data source for recurring Kalshi contracts. This admission has raised serious questions about what happens to settled contracts when the polling number behind them is later withdrawn or found to be false.

Kalshi's September 2025 regulatory filing names VoteHub as the source agency for those contracts and states that 'revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.' This creates a potential loophole where traders could be left with payouts based on fraudulent data.

Researchers at FiftyPlusOne requested raw data from Wedgewood's Mississippi Senate survey and found inconsistencies in respondent identifiers and transaction records. They commissioned a comparison survey through the same provider, Pollfish, and its records looked materially different.

Kalshi's Contract Rules

The Sept. 12, 2025 certification for Kalshi's VOTEHUBAPPROVE contracts designates VoteHub's time-adjusted polling average as the underlying and fixes the settlement value at expiration. A fixed observation time is ordinary in event contracts, because traders need a definitive reference.

The design ties settlement to the reliability of the source data available at that moment. A separate provision says that if the relevant VoteHub average is missing, the contract uses the most recent eligible average before the specified date. Treatment of a later retraction under that fallback falls to the rulebook.

Kalshi's Oct. 20 generic congressional ballot contract, KXVHGCB-26OCT20, resolves Yes when VoteHub's time-weighted Democratic-minus-Republican margin matches a specified percentage at the observation time. It covers what a VoteHub measure will read at a precise moment and sets the election winner aside.

Data Integrity Concerns

VoteHub's head of data science, Zachary Donnini, said he spoke with a Wedgewood representative before including the firm's polling, and that VoteHub graded Wedgewood a D and incorporated its data anyway. The Guardian reported that VoteHub was among the polling databases that carried the results.

VoteHub's methodology says its Complete forecasting model combines polling, fundamentals, expert assessments, and Kalshi prices. Market weight varies by race, with more influence where contests are competitive or polling is sparse, and it has a cap. A separate Legacy model runs on polling and fundamentals.

The methodology acknowledges that feeding market prices into forecasts consumed by traders can create feedback loops. The settlement reference is a polling average, and the forecast is a different data product. The methodology places market prices in the forecast and polling in the average, which keeps the settling average on its own inputs.

Potential Consequences

A contract requiring 8% resolves Yes when the polling average reads 8% at the observation time. If the source later corrects the reading to 7.8%, the exclusion of post-expiration revisions keeps the original settlement, assuming the rule operates as written. Settlement certainty is the benefit, and a payout built on a number later shown to be fabricated is the cost.

In August, the Associated Press reported that a Kalshi contract tied to a candidate moved about two cents within 15 minutes of a fabricated Los Angeles mayoral poll from Median Strategies. A cluster of Polymarket accounts traded in the same direction shortly afterward, and AP's reporting left the trades' ownership and any profits undetermined.

If Kalshi confirms which rulebook governs the October series, archives settlement inputs with timestamps and describes a dispute path for fabricated source data, the VoteHub contracts keep their certainty alongside a documented safeguard. VoteHub could add value by publishing which Wedgewood surveys entered its averages and when they were removed.

Three answers from Kalshi would close the open points: which rulebook governs the October series, whether any contract has settled on a later-corrected figure, and whether a settlement can be reopened once fabrication is confirmed. Election contracts will multiply toward Nov. 3, and each one rests on third-party data screened before settlement becomes final.