‘The biggest motivation is fear’: High turnout among Israel’s Palestinians could unseat Netanyahu
Palestinian citizens of Israel are turning out in high numbers for next week's elections, with their votes potentially critical to unseating Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition.
As the sun set over the town of Kfar Qasim, Palestinian citizens of Israel gathered over hot knafeh pastries and shots of strong cardamom-laced coffee to hear an urgent pitch for their votes. Palestinians make up about 20% of Israel's population and their votes are likely to be critical to efforts to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition in elections next week.
We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down. And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal.
Political Mathematics
Most polling shows Netanyahu's coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset but the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc will also fall short of the 61 seats needed to form a government. Palestinian citizens of Israel are forecast to secure between 12 and 15 seats, divided between the Islamist Ra'am and the Joint List alliance of three smaller parties, one of which is Ta'al.
The mathematics of power are clear, even though most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has ruled out a coalition with Arab politicians, and Netanyahu and his allies have been doing everything they can to make such an alliance politically toxic.
Historic Precedent
Racist, fear-mongering campaigning includes posters reading 'It's [either] the right or Palestine', while others on the right have coined the phrase 'Bibi [Netanyahu's nickname] or Tibi', even though there is little chance Tibi will hold even a junior ministerial post.
In the history of the state of Israel, there have been just two Palestinian ministers: Raleb Majadele held the portfolio for sport for two years and Issawi Frej was in charge of regional coordination for just over one year.
There is recent precedent for breaking promises not to work with Palestinians, however. The Ra'am leader, Mansour Abbas, in 2021 took his party into a historic coalition government with Naftali Bennett, now part of the opposition bloc, and Netanyahu himself had previously started coalition negotiations with Abbas.
Voter Motivation
One prospective voter, Mohammed, works at a hi-tech company, managing both Jewish and Arab employees, which he sees as a template for a different future for Israel. Although disappointed that most Jewish Israeli opposition parties have ruled out a coalition with Palestinian parties, he understands the political logic, and he expects their position to shift once results are in.
At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two. They cannot do anything without [those seats]. So they must do [some kind of deal] and they will do it.
For Palestinian politicians, any alliance with a Jewish-Israeli opposition is also challenging. None of the parties are calling for a two-state solution, most vigorously oppose a Palestinian state and most support the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank.
Tibi summed up the dilemma: 'It's between bad and worse. Any new government will not be my cup of tea, but I am choosing between Netanyahu, Smotrich, Ben-Gvir and the opposition.'
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