Giorgia Meloni is Italy’s great political survivor. Could one man be about to bring her down? | Riccardo Alcaro

Giorgia Meloni's government became Italy's longest serving in republican history last month. This unusual political longevity, combined with a moderate foreign policy, personal charisma, and even a recent spat with Donald Trump, has sharpened Meloni's profile as the go-to leader on the European right.

Meloni's personal approval rating – at about 41% – is one of the highest among west European leaders. Her far-right Brothers of Italy party has retained most of its support – a striking feat in our anti-incumbent era and by Italian standards, an achievement.

Far-right challenge

Yet all this may not suffice for her ruling coalition to be returned to power at Italy's next election, in 2027. Even before this week's riots in Milan, Meloni's greatest challenge was emerging from her far right, in the form of a new movement led by the former army general, Roberto Vannacci.

The firebrand demagogue will, like Marine Le Pen in France, certainly seek to exploit the unrest to promote his party's law-and-order credentials. If he succeeds, it could come at the expense of Meloni's ruling coalition.

Ideological divides

Vannacci's extreme positions and abrasive style quickly made him a regular media presence, and with public attention came political interest. Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League and a junior partner in Meloni's coalition, calculated that pulling the general into his ranks could boost his dwindling ratings.

In 2024 Vannacci was elected to the European parliament. However, he soon quit the League and this year founded a new far-right party, National Future, to which, polls suggest, the League has been losing support, imperilling Meloni's coalition's chances of re-election.

Electoral logic and a common ideological background would point to a Meloni-Vannacci alliance, but Vannacci's ideological extremism makes that difficult. Vannacci has made the "remigration" of foreign nationals – an idea promoted by such radical forces as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – a central plank of his programme.

Foreign policy rift

While opposition to migration is one of the defining features of Meloni's government, it has never gone as far as Vannacci's "remigration" stance. His emphasis on the traditional family is so uncompromising that he proposes giving parents additional votes in elections and an advantage in public recruitment.

The sharpest divide relates to foreign policy. Vannacci aims at easing the burden of eurozone fiscal discipline and opposes plans for greater defence integration. He has joined the AfD-led Europe of Sovereign Nations grouping in the European parliament, a group shunned even by Salvini's League.

On Russia and Ukraine, the gap is wider still. Echoing the AfD, Vannacci has argued that Russia is not an imminent threat to Europe and has called for the reopening of trade and diplomatic channels with Moscow, including by buying Russian gas. For Meloni, by contrast, backing Ukraine is a pillar of her international positioning.

Political strategy

Meloni's reluctance to enter an alliance with Vannacci is understandable. Forza Italia, her centre-right coalition partner, fears it would drive away the moderate conservative vote. The League is so shaken that some of its members want to disavow Salvini's nativist ideology and go back to the party's roots.

For the time being, Meloni has responded to the far-right challenge by doubling down on migration. Vannacci's presence in the electoral wings explains some of the background to her suspension of the Schengen free-movement rules for air and sea passengers from Spain after the Ceuta tragedy.

Meloni's dispatch of 500 troops to Milan ahead of further planned cost-of-living demonstrations was aimed partly at taking the wind out of Vannacci's sails. While an alliance could increase Meloni's chances of re-election, Vannacci would be a restive and unreliable coalition partner.

The alternative is to delegitimise Vannacci as a nationalist force, pointing to his extremism and proximity to Russia. Meloni would hardly regain the most extreme nativist voters lost to Vannacci but could convince a section of the moderate electorate to choose her coalition over centrist parties.