Trump is trying ‘The Art of the Deal’ in Ukraine but what must Putin give up?

Ukrainian officials have warned that only a couple of Patriot interceptor missiles remain in the country's stockpile. The Washington Post reported that Washington is holding up approval for further transfers, a delay that comes as Russian missiles continue to fall on Ukrainian cities.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on October 20 that a batch of interceptors purchased for Kyiv may not have been delivered, though he rejected any political motive. There’s nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine, he said.

The delay has fueled speculation that the administration is using leverage over Kyiv to force concessions. The United States controls the flow of weapons through NATO’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), and European donors have relied on American stockpiles to supply more than 90% of the aid delivered.

Scarcity and production

The administration points to a shortage of interceptors to explain the delay. Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025 and plans to expand annual capacity to 2,000 over seven years, but a July assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that heavy combat use had pushed American Patriot inventories below 1,000.

A president must keep enough interceptors to protect American troops, and a former Pentagon official argued that Ukraine’s needs cannot erase that obligation. The official noted that Europe is paying American industry to arm Ukraine, yet Washington controls the tap.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed for faster Patriot production licensing during a meeting with US Sens. Roger Wicker and Kevin Cramer in Kyiv on October 9. He offered joint production of interceptors, and Washington should pursue it with technology safeguards.

Leverage over Kyiv

Scarcity does not explain every pending decision, and Washington owes allies who paid for these weapons a straight explanation. Reuters reported that Washington threatened to stop the allied-funded PURL weapons pipeline to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

The administration also faces questions about satellite intelligence sharing. Elon Musk posted that limits on Ukraine’s terminals were "decided by the US military and ultimately" by the president, and Reuters traced the restriction to the White House through unnamed officials. Trump denied the move, saying It wasn’t us, but Ukraine went three days without American missile warnings before Zelenskyy said on October 18 that intelligence sharing had resumed.

The pressure is also personal. Trump called on October 10 for Ukraine to replace its president, yet Zelenskyy sat down with American envoys in Oslo on October 20. A leader who shows up for talks is not refusing diplomacy.

Moscow’s gains

On the other side of the ledger, Moscow has received relief. On October 9, the Treasury Department issued a license authorizing specified Russian diesel transactions, and Reuters later reported that Washington hoped the deal would soften Moscow’s negotiating position.

The administration’s case is domestic. Diesel hit a record $6.52 a gallon in September as the Iran war choked the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump promised relief for farmers, ranchers, and truckers. But Lawfare’s analysis found the agreed Russian exports would cover only about 2% of American demand.

Putin never confirmed the energy ceasefire Trump announced on October 11, and his missiles show he never intended to honor it. A week later, Russian strikes hit 28 substations and other energy facilities, leaving roughly 550,000 Ukrainian households without power.

What Putin must give up

Putin bargains as if time is on his side, but the battlefield says otherwise. Reuters reported on October 17 that Russian advances had slowed and many front lines remained largely static. That gives Washington room to demand reciprocity.

Wicker, the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, proposed one approach on October 18: Ukrainian restraint against petroleum facilities in exchange for American targeting assistance against Russian missile launches. It deserves consideration, but Putin would still need to offer restraint of his own.

For a durable agreement, Russia must halt strikes on Ukraine’s power grid and cities, accept monitored ceasefire terms, and negotiate with Kyiv, not over Kyiv’s head in China. It must also recognize that the size of Ukraine’s army and the choice of its security partners belong to Kyiv, not the Kremlin.

Trump should preserve American reserves, expand production, insist on European performance, and refuse any summit that decides Ukraine’s fate without Ukraine. Diesel licenses and any further sanctions relief should depend on compliance, with automatic snap-back penalties if Moscow cheats.